http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...n_mideast_view
By DONNA ABU-NASR, Associated Press Writer
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - A young man smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee in a Saudi cafe worries that Iraq's elections could lead to civil war. On the banks of the Nile, a student strolling with his girlfriend dismisses the polls as a sham meant to place a pro-American government in Iraq. Yemenis, chewing their mildly stimulating khat leaves, express hope the United States will pressure other tyrannical regimes to change.
The Arab world is anything but indifferent to Sunday's polling in Iraq, which has dual implications for the restive region. It will almost certainly bring to power Iraq's long-suppressed Shiite Muslims, boosting the sect's influence in this Sunni Muslim-dominated area. It also will mean Washington has succeeded in bringing democracy to Iraq by force — at least for the moment — a precedent that could shake up the autocratic Arab world.
"Arab governments may not say it, but they don't want Iraq's democratic experiment to succeed," said Turki al-Hamad, a prominent Saudi columnist and former political science professor. "Such a success would embarrass them and present them with the dilemma of either changing or being changed."
Arabs were of mixed feelings about the poll. Many said U.S. involvement reinforced their distrust.
"This election is an American movie made to convince Iraqis to go to the polls so that the United States will stay in Iraq and control its oil," said Jordanian Mohammed Fakhri, 28, owner of a mobile phones shop. "There will be ... a government with Iraqi stooges serving U.S. and Israeli interests."
A veiled Egyptian flower vendor who gave her name only as Um Abdel Rahman dismissed the poll as "a sedative for the people. Democracy is just a decoration."
Wouldn't she like to participate in free elections? "Women speak their minds all the time. I don't need to vote," she said.
However others hoped the poll would be a catalyst for a region-wide democratic push.
The elections are a "good omen for getting rid of dictatorship," Yemeni political science student Fathi al-Uraiqi said, chewing khat with friends. "But I hope America is not driven by its own interests but by a genuine desire to spread democracy in the rest of the region."
Mohammed al-Omran, a 21-year-old Saudi coffee shop manager, said the Shiites should be fair if they want to prevent the situation in Iraq from dissolving into civil war or partition.
"Saddam Hussein was hated because he persecuted (the Shiites). They should not do the same," he said, as he sipped coffee and smoked cigarettes.
Interest was high among Saudi Arabia's Shiite minority, who have long complained of discrimination.
"People are glued to their TV screens" in al-Qatif and Ihsaa, Shiite-dominated towns in the oil-rich Eastern Province, said Muhammad Mahfouz, a Shiite editor of a cultural magazine.
Clergymen used special services Saturday for Ghadeer Day, which marked the Prophet Muhammad's nomination of his son-in-law Ali as his successor, to pray for smooth and safe elections, he said.
Some of Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbors have expressed fears a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq could join with Iran to form a Shiite crescent, threatening traditional Sunni dominance of the region and inspiring potential political claims by other Shiites.
Al-Hamad, who lives in the Eastern Province, said Saudi Arabia will only fear a Shiite government in Iraq if it allies itself with Iran, which had called for exporting its 1979 Islamic Revolution beyond its borders.
A Shiite government in Iraq will not inspire unrest among the kingdom's Shiites, he said.
"They are not demanding self-rule or an alliance with Iran. They just want rights that citizens in any country expect," he said. "A Shiite government in Iraq will give them the confidence to lobby more persistently for those rights."
Arab intellectuals, politicians and writers differed over whether the elections would provide a good example for democratic reform in a region in which free and fair elections are rare and human rights groups operate with difficulty.
Arab League spokesman Hossam Zaki said the election was a step forward, but added that Iraq, with its unstable security situation, was a "model to be avoided."
Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt said the polls can only be judged after the results come out. But so far they've proven "a bizarre model," with candidates campaigning furtively for fear of insurgent attacks and Sunni Muslims boycotting the process.
Writing in Beirut's Al-Anwar newspaper, political analyst Rafik Khoury said Arab governments who have criticized shortcomings of Iraq's elections, demanding that they be "honest and transparent ... themselves ban such elections for their own peoples."
"If the future promised by the elections appears confusing, are the Iraqis supposed to bet on the future that the executioners promise them?" he said, refering to insurgents.
The Egyptian student, Ahmed Abdel Rahman, openly spoke about not trusting U.S. intentions in Iraq, saying the new Iraqi ruler "will be a follower of America."
But when asked if democracy can grow in Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak (news - web sites) is widely expected to seek a fifth term in power, the 20-year-old looked over his shoulder and said:
"Let's talk about Iraq. Let's stay away from talking about Egypt."
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And there you have it. Today's voting in Iraq has geopolitical ramifications.