http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/28/172336/87
ETA: I think that the Bush admin knows that they couldn't pull off a major October surprise this year. For example, if they decide to "have Osama captured" this weekend, the liberals have already predicted that so many times that NOBODY would think it was a coincidence, and Osama's capture would end up working against him. Ditto for almost anything else that might work as an October surprise for the Republicans.