Quote:
Originally posted by James
Major diffculty with invading Iran is its size. ITs like a quarter of the size of the US, maybe even one third. We are having enough trouble controlling a much smaller country.
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Militarily, there would be realitively little difficulty invading Iran. The problems arise with the aftermath. Iran is different from Iraq, which was a totalitarian and genocidal regime. There is far less of a moral imperitive to invade Iran. Also, even if we did invade Iran, thanks to Bill Clinton, the U.S. no longer posesses the force structure to undertake two theaters of operations at the same time. Invading Iran would mean a draft, and that's not going to happen.
Unlike Iraq, we can see inside Iranian society and get some kind of an idea of what is going on. The current regime's days are numbered, the big question is when. Basically, we are currently playing Beat the Clock. Which will happen first? Democracy or nuclear weapons?
What Iran is doing is very clear. They are trying to establish themselves as the regional hegemon, and they believe that they need nuclear weapons to accomplish this. The region has been without a hegemon, which is part of why it is so unstable. Thanks to Iraq and Qatar, the U.S. is now the regional hegemon. This is an unstable situation, but a necessary one.
The region must be changed. Three things have to happen. There needs to be a transition away from the radical madrassas. There must be a transition away from state controlled media that deflects governmental incompetance towards the U.S. And there needs to direct foreign investment. This will transform the region. Immediately after 9-11, Iraq's Baathist regime was the only government in the region proactively opposed to these things (as Iran is today.) On top of that, they increased their financing of terrorist organizations with the express purpose of destabilizing the region. Well, they're gone.
Now there are three nations left that primarily pose a problem, all of which border Iraq (geopolitics was another of the several reasons why the Baathists were removed.) They are Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.
Saudi Arabia is the most perplexing problem. 20 years ago, Saudi Arabia had a per capita income of about $28,000. Today its about $6,000. They are headed for a violent revolution, full speed ahead, and it will probably conclude with a theocracy. There seems to be nothing that anyone can do. The Saudi Royal Family (dis)functions as an oligarchy, and it seems to be incapable of reaching a consensus that would allow it change course. All that we can do is sit back and watch, and we'll be watching from Iraq and Qatar. My guess is that Saudi Arabia will soon be run by a theocracy, and then 20-40 years later, a democracy will finally emerge.
Syria is a smaller, but relevant problem. They continue to occupy Lebanon, and destabilize the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Removing the Syrian Baathists from power could have a stabilizing effect on the region. Just as removing the Iraqi Baathists led Lybia to change course, seeing a pro-US change in Iran will make Syria stick out like a sore thumb, and that probably would cause Syria to follow Lybia's path.
Then there is Iran. They are the only nation with hegemonic aspirations, as well as nuclear ambitions. The theocratic regime is on its last legs. We can invade, and easily defeat them, but then what? The Iranian people will probably be supportive of a pro-US government if we don't invade, but probably anti-American if we do. Here lies the paradox. We need a pro-US government in Iran, and it will probably happen. We also can't afford to let Iran go nuclear. Even if Iran never uses those weapons, what would happen to them during a revolution? Can some other entity or coalition help save the day? The UN won't do anything. The IAEA has no teeth. The EU couldn't stop the Bosnian genocide without US leadership, so how are they going to lead this effort, especially with France and Germany in the middle of things? So we (the people outside of the Bush administration) wait and watch. None of us know what's really going on behind the scenes, but I doubt that Iran is getting a pass.