[AlphaSigOU]

Computer models can be quite fickle sometimes, as was demonstrated by Frances. She came barreling down the outer islands of the Bahamas a Cat 3 storm with 145 mph winds but eventually calmed down (by not much) into a Cat 2 storm with over 100 mph winds by the time she made landfall in the Florida peninsula. Predicted tracks over 72 hours beyond the current position are really 'best guesses'.

Ivan's computer prediction model has it probably crossing Hispaniola Island (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and much of Cuba, which has some pretty mountainous terrain; that could slow down his development and temper his bite for a short time until he gets to the open seas, where the warm Gulf Stream can help feed it back to its mean old self.

Depending on weather patterns later in the week, Ivan could turn south and enter the Gulf of Mexico, dodging most of Florida except the Keys and possibly the Panhandle if it curves northward once it gets in the Gulf. That's when the rest of the Gulf states and Mexico will hafta be on its toes. Or it can go further north, this time giving South Florida an ass-kicking as it makes its way to the Gulf.

Just be careful out there folks... anything can change between now and next week.