I think it's very important to expand in areas where you're not strong. After all, how are you ever going to gain any strength in that area unless someone sticks their neck out?
I think that with 10-20 local alumnae (and I feel like I'm overestimating for possible burnout), a new chapter would be just fine. Also, the local will have some girls graduating at the end of the year who will be staying in the area (or trying to) that I know would help out. I'm a fellow bridesmaid with one of their alumnae.