I'm not a guy, so I can't say as an insider, but at my college (with deferred rush in January), nearly 100% of the guys who are rushing have it narrowed down to 1 or 2 choices of where they think they fit (out of 15 fraternities on campus) before formal rush. I would say the fraternities know who 85% of their pledge class will likely include, but you always get a few rushees changing their minds at the last minute or whatever. There are always a few surprises or random guys but for the most part, frats figure out who they like, and freshmen figure out where they fit in, well before "real" rush.
It's not so much that they rush people still in high school, but they go way out of their way to meet freshman guys in september and start calling ones they like for barbecues, parties, etc. If a freshman is from a frat guy's high school or hometown, you can bet that freshman will get a few calls to come hang out.
By the time formal rush rolls around in January, the frats have already been hanging out with these freshman on at least a weekly basis for an entire semester, so they have a good idea who they want to offer a bid, and who would likely accept their bid.
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