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Scenario 5 can happen and has happened at times. (Not the psycho president and whatnot, but the general idea that a strong recruiting house doesn't do as well during preference as usual.) It's what I think of as the burden of a very strong recruiting chapter. They must stay on top of their game through the very end. If they have issues with round 1 or round 2, then usually flex lists can fix it. But if they are brilliant all the way through preference, and have very few women on their bid list, and something goes wrong and they fail to seal the deal with their PNMs, it is possible for them to not close to quota. It is heartbreaking.
Not something a PNM ever has to worry about! And rarely is it something a chapter has to worry about. But it is why very strong recruiting chapters have to stay engaged to the end of their last preference party, and not get complacent.
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Gamma Phi Beta
To inspire the highest type of womanhood.
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