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We can't tell you your specific chances - too many variables. I will say that generally speaking, it's the unweighted GPA that is considered, and you are definitely at the low end. You'll be competing with other PNMs who also have AP courses on their transcripts, but their GPAs will be considerably higher than yours (unweighted AND weighted). This is coming from many years of direct experience with recruitment.
As you'll see from other threads on this topic, you need to go through recruitment with an open mind. Prepare yourself ahead of time (including letters of recommendation). Be able to accept that you may face heavy cuts and that the chapter(s) you think you want, may not want you. Do search through the Recruitment forum, and read all the stickied posts.
That said, do your best, and good luck!
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"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision." Bertrand Russell, The Triumph of Stupidity
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