OK, so a rec has no way of predicting who's going to go ape$**t bonkers once they don't live with Mom and Dad any more, but that's hard to predict in three or four 30 minute conversations, too. I have seen a couple of those, but I have also seen OOS girl or small-town-girl-that-doesn't-know-anyone work out great. I'm not talking about filling a whole pledge class with girls based only on alum recs, just about finding a couple of great girls who might otherwise be missed. (Case in point - moi.
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The best shot at recruitment is still to already know girls in the chapter.