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How selective they're going to be is really going to depend on the school. I haven't seen this brought up before regarding fraternities but there are several related threads about NPC sorority transfers. And in those cases, you are NOT a shoo in. The fear, beyond huge numbers, is girls pledging crapola chapter, initiating and then transferring to superstar SEC chapter. I wouldn't imagine the same issues would necessarily apply for men, but they still might not want to take any member they wouldn't have pledged the first time around, even if you're not a douche.
If you have the opportunity to meet the guys prior to all of this, it might be helpful - from your end too. You might decide going alum is the better choice regardless of what they think.
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"Traveling - It leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller. ~ Ibn Battuta
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