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Originally Posted by UGAalum94
I apologize but could you spell out for me what effects you think were previously measurable and wrapped within other elections and which you find unmeasurable in this election. I don't doubt it's my own fault, but I can't seem to tease them out. Seriously, I'm not trying to snark; I'm not following your distinction and I'd like to.
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I can if you're really that loose on what we're discussing, but going through 538.com will actually answer these questions for you - I don't have time right now, but I'll look into it if I get a minute.
However, I think I can basically answer in the 'negative' as it were: the only difference between this election and previous is the existence of a black man. We can account for economic problems, wartime, etc. by using similarity comparisons. So literally everything else will be accounted for - even if incompletely or without realizing it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by UGAalum94
I've tried to be pretty clear about how little insight my Spidey-Sense or any other sense provides me on this issue, other than to say it's going to surprise the hell out of me if the margin is as big as the one last week.
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And I completely agree - last week was probably the high/low point of the election process, depending on which side you're on. However, narrowing after this point is normal (and accounted for), so the odds take this into account. It's still probably a 19:2 shot against McCain.