Quote:
Originally Posted by KSig RC
YES, which is why I noted it was "unprecedented" and "unmeasurable."
However, other effects that you noted are completely wrapped within other elections, and thus make for a worthy comparison study.
Remember - supposedly unmeasurable race/gender effects were rampant throughout the Democratic primaries, and Silver's model did a fantastic job mapping those (better than every mainstream media source). So . . . yeah. Feel free to wonder about the numbers, but there's a good chance your Spidey-Sense is tingling for reasons other than a lack of numerical or scientific accuracy of the assay.
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I apologize but could you spell out for me what effects you think were previously measurable and wrapped within other elections and which you find unmeasurable in this election. I don't doubt it's my own fault, but I can't seem to tease them out. Seriously, I'm not trying to snark; I'm not following your distinction and I'd like to.
I've tried to be pretty clear about how little insight my Spidey-Sense or any other sense provides me on this issue, other than to say it's going to surprise the hell out of me if the margin is as big as the one last week.