Quote:
Originally Posted by KSig RC
I have no reason to doubt that it was an accurate reflection of reality as of last week - the race always tightens at the very end, that's a historical trend with many and varied explanations.
Remember, I didn't make this connection - you did.
I'm saying that, in addition to the other polling biases that exist, there will be an unprecedented lever-pull moment effect related to race - we don't know how significant this will be, or how many it will affect, we simply know it is likely to exist.
All of this may or may not be true - I'm not sure of any sort of substantive research on voter satisfaction with their own choices and how it is reflected in a willingness to answer an anonymous survey (at least beyond historical comparisons, a la 538.com) - but again, these effects should bear themselves out in the comparative and historical data, regardless, right?
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I don't know. Again, I think there are too many new variables to know for sure. If we accept what you've said about an unprecedented amount of race related level-pulling effect, isn't it going to be particularly hard to measure in advance?
But I didn't even realize I had made the racism connection that you commented on, so what do I know. (Do you simply mean bringing up the Bradley/Wilder Effect? When did I make that connection before you did?)