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Originally Posted by UGAalum94
Yeah, I don't know that McCain can win although I'm still hoping, but as I said, I don't think the 14 point lead from last week will match up with reality.
It was the size of the lead that seemed so far off. It's apparently narrowing this week.
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I have no reason to doubt that it was an accurate reflection of reality as of last week - the race always tightens at the very end, that's a historical trend with many and varied explanations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by UGAalum94
And maybe it's because I'm supporting McCain but I don't think the reluctance to own up to supporting him is even predominately a reflection of racism on the part of McCain voters.
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Remember, I didn't make this connection - you did.
I'm saying that, in addition to the other polling biases that exist, there will be an unprecedented lever-pull moment effect related to race - we don't know how significant this will be, or how many it will affect, we simply know it is likely to exist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by UGAalum94
I think many people who plan to vote for McCain aren't talking about it because it's not worth feeling like you have to defend yourself to a bunch of people whose political opinions you may not value.
Even though race is clearly involved in the Bradley effect, I'm not sure that the reason that people vote the way they do (in elections where its affect has been assumed) is particularly attributable to racism by the voters who vote against the black candidate. It may have more to do with the fear of having your motivation judged to be racist when you are asked in advance if you support the black candidate. It's far easier and I think pretty common to in a lot of, even non-political, instances to offer public approval for figures who you might be judged to be a racist if you publicly disapprove of, even if you have specific and non-race based reasons for your disapproval.
There's absolutely no risk in showing approval and a big risk of seeming racist in disapproving.
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All of this may or may not be true - I'm not sure of any sort of substantive research on voter satisfaction with their own choices and how it is reflected in a willingness to answer an anonymous survey (at least beyond historical comparisons, a la 538.com) - but again, these effects should bear themselves out in the comparative and historical data, regardless, right?