Quote:
Originally Posted by KSig RC
All of this does occur, as does simple regression to the mean and backlash to the frontrunner - Silver's models use varying ways to account for this, mostly based on historical comparison, and it's still a 90%+ shot for an Obama victory.
Additionally, we can't account for racism, and that will certainly play a role in the actual lever-pull moment for some portion of the population, but unless there is something incredible that happens, you're looking at a massive edge for Obama and all of the momentum going his direction. That conclusion certainly passes the smell test for me, even accounting for psychological effects of polling and similar.
|
Yeah, I don't know that McCain can win although I'm still hoping, but as I said, I don't think the 14 point lead from last week will match up with reality.
It was the size of the lead that seemed so far off. It's apparently narrowing this week.
And maybe it's because I'm supporting McCain but I don't think the reluctance to own up to supporting him is even predominately a reflection of racism on the part of McCain voters.
I think many people who plan to vote for McCain aren't talking about it because it's not worth feeling like you have to defend yourself to a bunch of people whose political opinions you may not value.
Even though race is clearly involved in the Bradley effect, I'm not sure that the reason that people vote the way they do (in elections where its affect has been assumed) is particularly attributable to racism by the voters who vote against the black candidate. It may have more to do with the fear of having your motivation judged to be racist when you are asked in advance if you support the black candidate. It's far easier and I think pretty common to in a lot of, even non-political, instances to offer public approval for figures who you might be judged to be a racist if you publicly disapprove of, even if you have specific and non-race based reasons for your disapproval.
There's absolutely no risk in showing approval and a big risk of seeming racist in disapproving.