Quote:
Originally Posted by MysticCat
Not really off topic. His analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com is, as I understand it, based on his baseball statistical work.
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The best part of Silver's work is that his baseball work and political work are actually pretty different - conceptually, they're based on similarity modeling, but the implementation is pretty different (and actually, his political models are genius because they use pretty simple assumptions to come up with a sophisticated model, whereas PECOTA is a massive sprawling awesome mess).
The second best part?
The Burrito Bracket. I'm a massive fan of the dude's work - very impressive, and I'm very jealous I didn't think of the 538 method first, even while upset that he hasn't written nearly as much on BP as a result. Definitely better than any of the MSM polling sources.