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I hope it's a close one with a slight McCain win because I don't think I can realistically hope for a big McCain win, unless something huge happens before November.
What I feel like I don't know in trying to assess things is who is actually going to bother to go to the polls on election day.
It's one thing to say you're a likely voter if someone calls to poll you, join a facebook group, or otherwise support a candidate before the election; it's another to take the time to wait in line to vote on election day. (Campaign donations probably really say something, but it's in the number of distinct givers rather than in total amount, I hope.)
I tend to think the McCain/Palin voters are older and I'd be really surprised if someone who was a first time voter was attracted to their campaign. You have to have a certain cynical, immunity, probably created by years of failed campaign rhetoric, to be willing to resist the Obama campaign's message, I think.
It just comes down to whether enough Obama voters bother to show up in November.
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