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UCF definitely does not guarantee bids. However, as long as your grades are good, and you go in with an open mind, you stand a pretty decent chance.
Sophomore standing can affect you, but it is nowhere near as bad as at some schools. Back in my day, I think a sophomore who was otherwise a strong candidate would at least have a chance at every chapter. Again, having an open mind is imperative, and recs wouldn't kill you either. (They're not all that common at UCF in my experience, so they will help you stand out.)
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