I agree, but I think trade will be a major problem. Think about it, if output and demand in United States fall, something (which we have yet to define
) would happen in a recession. The results from this would be a decline in private consumption, capital spending by companies, and production would lead to a drop in imports of consumer goods, capital goods, commodities, and other raw materials. U.S. imports are other countries exports as well as an important part of their overall demand, which if effected, there would be a drop in their economic growth rates too.
The thing that kills me is how everyone is so afraid of China and Japan doing better than the U.S. I call bull on this. Several significant enonomies including Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and much of Southeast Asia are heavily dependent on exports to the United States. We are the worlds biggest consumers, so if our ecomomy is totally screwed, so is China's and Japan's.