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I applied to 7 which was definitely on the low side. And I only finished secondaries to four...
Knowing what I know now, I know that's way LOW. It didn't hurt me (I only interviewed at my top two, turning down an interview for my third choice, and withdrawing from my 4th when I got accepted to my top two within a week of each other.) but it's not a good way to go for most everyone else.
You should apply to out of state publics for sure. While there is a certainly some major in-state advantages, very few schools are entirely limited to only in-state residents (though some are - like Arizona). I'm most familiar with Kansas and Nebraska and both admit about 15-20% of their class from OOS, depending on the year. Nebraska (my school) even has tuition waivers for OOS students, so you only end up paying in-state tuition. Not all the OOS students get one for their first years, but most have them by the second, and all by the third year. That's a BIG deal. I definitely remember getting my $100k phone call letting me know that I was only going to have to pay in-state for the four years.
Your efforts should definitely be focused on your in-state schools - apply to all of them, because that's where you have the best chance of getting in, but it doesn't make any sense to limit yourself to those only. I'd look in in either the MSAR and the USNWR for the GPA and MCAT scores of the entering classes from the year previous. As an OOS student, you need to make sure that you're above average. I have a friend who uses a self created "index score" (it might be on SDN) as a good measure of how your grades and MCAT score line up. Basically it's GPA x10 + MCAT, so the highest possible score is an 85, but obviously that's unattainable. But if a school has a 3.6 avg GPA and a 31 MCAT, that's a 67, and the formula, though slightly crude weighs things pretty well. I agree with my friends assessment that a .1 point in GPA is about the same as a point on the MCAT. He's since gone on to include modifiers for race (because that does play such a huge role in med school admissions) and a couple other things, but the general formula still works.
So when applying out of state, definitely go for it if there's a school who matches your index and you're interested in attending (that's a big part obviously). You won't wow them if you're on the mark, but hopefully you can get an interview and wow them then. If you are significantly above their index, then it's a no brainer. You should apply.
Obviously, private schools need to be part of your list as well. Some may give a slight in-state advantage but no where near as large as many state schools.
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"I address the haters and underestimaters, then ride up on 'em like they escalators"
- Abraham Lincoln
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