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I have no idea if Obama will win the general, but I wouldn't be surprised if for every charismatic, excited young person campaigning now, there aren't 10 disgruntled senior citizens ready to vote against change and for another senior citizen.
And that's without even getting into the middle-aged, disillusioned former Fred Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee supporters who will probably just break down and vote for the party.
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