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I'm basically with you, but you still have to realize that to some degree the group is choosing the junior instead of an equally qualified first year, and that's the part that I think makes it hard.
If the junior were somehow more desirable, more groups might take a chance.
I don't know this for sure, but I think you also have to consider that most groups, even when really well regarded, see themselves in competition with other very strong groups. So although to you and me, 189 and 200 may not seem a significant difference, at that tier, it might be. I don't know.
I'd love to just see separate junior or senior quota. It would solve the problem and make juniors and seniors attractive to all groups.
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