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I'd say 2016. I think whoever wins in 2008, unless a lot of stuff happens, will serve two terms. Of course, I think if someone like Clinton actually did win, she might lose reelection, but in that case Obama wouldn't be in the running.
I personally hope he follows the DNC stupidity playbook (basically anything they do without Carville) and blows his future chances. However, from a strategic standpoint he'd be wise to wait it out.
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