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Hi AXOAlum,
This sucks, but frankly I think your best bet is to just drop it and leave negative feedback at the 90 day mark.
I started using eBay 8 years ago and have done about 1,200 transactions (buying and selling), and I was active on the SafeHarbor board a couple of years- and your story happens a lot.
Back when eBay was smaller, you could get a lot more personal attention when things went wrong. Once- back in 2000- an eBay staffer saw my item photos had uploaded with really dark exposure, and she adjusted them and emailed me to let me know. Back then, you could actually call eBay and speak to a live person in California at their offices.
But now, forget it. The automated complaint system seems to be constantly overloaded with complaints.
As for Paypal claims- the buyer is going to be given the benefit of the doubt in all cases if the seller cannot prove the item was shipped.
By "prove the item was shipped", I mean if the seller can show proof that he delivered a package of some kind to you- then you are not going to get an automatic solution.
For USPS shipping, that means insurance. So since this guy insured the package, he can show proof he mailed you something and that means you are in for a long Paypal dispute with several email exchanges.
The real consumer power is to pay via Paypal with a credit card and then do a chargeback through your credit card company. This forces Paypal to handle it themselves with the seller and then you have nothing more to worry about. But most credit card companies require you initiate a chargeback within 30 days- so acting fast is important.
I am not sure about now, but before the merger Paypal was NOT regulated as a banking institution. So they had- and I think still have- a great deal of power to handle a dispute in their own way. So unlike your bank or credit card company, they are not compelled by law or competition for customers to offer you as a buyer that same level of protection.
All that said, in eBay's defense they must get a flood of complaints and in order to remain a neutral venue there are certain things they cannot do. If you go to the mall, buy a T-shirt at the Gap and get home and find it was torn, take it back and get refused a refund at the Gap- you cannot go to the mall management company and expect them to force the Gap to give you a refund for obvious reasons. Same logic applies to eBay.
Generally speaking, I think eBay has depressed prices for a great many products- especially collectibles and used items- to the benefit of consumers but as it has evolved and grown it has become subject to the same kinds of risks you would face in any other major retail venue, except that you never meet your seller or see the item before you receive it.
Probably more than you wanted to know, but there it is.
As for feedback- you have up to 90 days, so I always advise people to leave their negatives on the 90th day. That said, the 90 days does not always seem to be a hard and fast rule, so your seller may still have a couple of days to neg you back.
I have a couple of negatives on my record- inevitable when you have a lot of transactions- but I have probably saved myself 5 or 6 negatives by just forgetting about it when getting screwed over on a small item.
It is just a reality that you are going to get somewhat hosed either way, and so you have to decide whether to take the financial loss or spend time trying to get a refund and get a negative on your record.
Anyway- hope this helps.
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