AZD, well all sororities for that matter, does an incredible amount of research and preparation prior to colonizing a chapter, so they rarely fail. If its a large school, such as AOII at Univ of Arkansas where the investment for the the house alone is $4-5 million....it took/will take many many thousands to colonize and get that group off the ground. God knows your chapter took thousands and you were small!
I'd think if you are going to lose a chapter, it would be in the first few years. You have to build a strong base and hope they "stay alive" and passionate after the newness wears off. And pray you get NM's who are just as passonate. A good rule of thumb....it takes a minimum of 5 years for a chapter to really get off their feet, no matter the size or the school...some can take longer than that. What I think is important is you not only have a strong chapter, but also a strong alumnae and advisor base who will stick with the chapter for more than the regular 1-2 year term. New chapters need to have consistancy from an advisor level.
I know when I took on Iota Theta, I made a personal commitment of 4-5 years...to graduate that first class and make sure the chapter was strong. We're in year 3, but I don't see myself going anywhere anytime soon. LOL! I know you're thrilled right Amanda? HA, maybe I should ask how thrilled your new members are!
Sorry I rambled....I'm getting tired.