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I think its rare for them to close a big chapter. Usually when that does happen to one, it is not only the national org, but also public relations pressure from the university. I think it also depends on the chapter's relationship to the national org. For example, my chapter and others at the big southern schools have always had the largest classes, most money, etc, but we had basically no correspondence with nationals beyond what was neccesary. However, the chapters the national organization love and constantly give awards to (the ones that devote themselves almost entirely to fundraising and the HQ concepts of brotherhood, antihazing), will be much more likely to experience nationals wrath. Those chapters, although superb in the national org's mind, would do little to fight punishment. They generally are not great socially or financially, and thus have little alumni or money with which to cause nationals to pause before stripping them of a charter. Meanwhile, the big southern chapters, at least in my fraternity, have several of the most powerful alumni and the loss of a couple of those chapter's money and influence would have impace on the national fraternity.
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