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I would hope that he wouldn't go with the ex. Reasons?
1) The date is his ex. 'Nuff said.
2) I know it's not very polite, but hey - if he doesn't cancel on her, they will both be MISERABLE! He, for not having a good time and wishing he was with someone else, she, b/c she probably didn't want to be there anyway. Plus, how good will she feel once she knows that she's been used as a "pity"/polite/I don't want-to-hurt-your-feelings date?
3) Both of them deserve a good time at the formal. It doesn't look like they'll have fun if they're going together.
In the long AND short run, I think that would be the better option.
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