Quote:
Originally posted by TxGirl
New Release Figure Method (RFM) will help some - once it is implemented FULLY at all schools doing a formal recruitment.
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Okay, I do applied mathmatics for a living, and I think there is a lot that can be done to improve release figures.
For example, in the 3-year average system that is normally used on my campus, if a chapter has return rates of 30%, 40% and 50% the past three years, their release figures will be calculated based on a 40% return rate (meaning they get to invite back temporary quota * number of parties in this round / 40%). However, they are obviously getting better each year, and are likely to have at least a 50% return rate.
HOWEVER, I am very wary of the new RFM. NPC will not publish how this is calculated, and makes vague references to a 'release figures specialist'. I put very little stock in the idea that the NPC release figure specialist can be totally unbiased and has the special expertise to pick numbers that will maximize the number of bids on bid day.
So what do we do? We should improve our forecasting methods using proven mathmatical forecasting strategies. Rather than some 'specialist' who allegedly has knowledge of recruitment, this is a mathmatical problem that should be solved by people like, well, me (of course with the aid of software designed for this and used widely in industries like mine).
Of course, this depends on whether you use the numbers from last year alone or if you factor in return rates from early rounds in the later rounds, but I see no problem with the former option. It doesn't matter if XYZ has 100% returns each round if their prefs are terrible and nobody ranks them #1 on pref night.
FR aside, I would also make total a more dynamic number. What if it was set after formal recruitment so exactly half the chapters are still able to COR if they make quota? So going into FR, you have six chapters with 90, 92, 92, 95, 97, and 100. Quota is 50. Total then becomes 145, so the bottom three chapters have 5, 3, and 3 spots open assuming they each make quota.