Things are Getting Tense
 

It's just a matter of time, and I think it will eventually happen.

I sure as hell don't want to depress or freak out all of my fellow GLO members on this site but, yea, this is getting scary: http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2

Just more of the same old rhetoric, or to paraphrase Doc Brown: "We are gonna see some serious shit.".

Honestly, I wouldn't be super concerned.

First, Un has little to no incentive to actually do anything threatening--and if he does, he should know by now that nobody has the patience to deal with him and will blow him and his country off the face of the planet before he can say 'nuclear'. China and Russia are their sole allies in the region (I don't count Iran...they're not regional); the PRC is at the end of their fuse with them and Russia doesn't want more instability. The DPRK tends to do this to get more money out of countries since they care more about building bombs than feeding their own people. Since the DPRK has shut down access to Kaesong, I'd say the odds of them doing something are slightly higher, but still not super likely

Second, militarily they are WAY behind. While the DPRK does have a sizable contingent of traditional medium range ballistic missiles, they don't have much in the way of long-range missiles that are reliable. None of their military technology has the range to reliably reach Hawaii, let alone the mainland US. They could do a quick strike into South Korea, but given the US's presence in the country + South Korea's military + the rest of the world's opinion, I don't think they'd last long.

Finally, don't underestimate China's role in all of this. China wants North Korea to remain weak for a few reasons--they're a buffer zone between the PRC and South Korea, and if the DPRK falls, hundreds of thousands of refugees will flood across the border into China, stressing government from the local on up. China also views the refugees as a national security threat, since they don't know who is just a refugee and who could be a spy.

Having lived in S. Korea when N. Korea started their nuclear testing, I would say this is probably a little more interesting to South Koreans than that was, but generally the South ignores this kind of sabre-rattling from the North. The amount of U.S. military assets in SK, as well as China's unwillingness to go to the mat for the North means that this is probably going to be a few tense days/weeks and then nothing. *unless* - and I saw this theory floated on a non-news site the other day...Un wants to get out and get himself exiled to Switzerland, where he's spent part of his life. Of course he wants to stay alive so he has to placate his older generals, but as soon as he "loses" a "war" to the South/U.S., he can get out.

Of course, the South doesn't want to be overrun with refugees either -- they saw the reunification of Germany and has decided they want no part of that.

Real thugs move in silence. Dude is bluffing.

Just because he's not moving in silence doesn't necessarily mean he's not "moving in silence". :)

Have you seen "Olympus has Fallen"? Great movie, if you haven't seen it yet. Kind of predictable, but I still thought it was good. :)

hey, you!??

Olympus TV ads did look interesting, but I'm not really "movie guy" unless it's something wifey wants to see. Once there, I have a good time but movies are seldom my 1st entertainment choice. :)

Hey there. :)

Oh, I just love the movies. :p Well, if the two of you get some time for a "dinner and a movie" night, make that one the movie to see. You won't be disappointed. :)

I think it is just a bluff.Short of going nuclear, they don't have a chance against the joint ROK and USFK militaries. And if they did go nuclear, somehow I doubt Russia and China will stay out of it.

If NK goes nuclear do they really think that the US, China and Russia will stand back and not do something about it? He's really dumb if he thinks that. NK will be blown off the map.

I saw this on Facebook: "North Korea has won the toss. They have elected to receive." :D

I don't buy any of it. If he was educated in the west, he knows the truth about what the US is capable of and likely knows that China is not going to cause a literal World War III over this puny blood sucker, so they'd be hung out to dry. So he's saber rattling to increase his penis size. C'est la vie. But I am interested in the scenario where he is actively trying to bring down his country just so he can bail. Can you imagine being so cynical and self-involved that you would cause the inevitable deaths of THOUSANDS of people for your own purposes that don't even involve making money or gaining power?

I cannot imagine being that cycnical and self-involved. But I can imagine someone who has grown up in the twisted world that he has being so. I don't know if I buy that theory at all, but it was something interesting to think about.

I keep saying that I'm tired of their bluffing - if they're going to do it, DO IT and get it over with!