State of the Economy
 

In your opinion, is it getting better, getting worse or staying about the same?

Greece is in huge economic crisis --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tAtTs58mKc

:(

I think it really depends on where you are. In Michigan, we haven't hit bottom yet. It will be a relief when we do and things start to turn.

Economy
 

AGDee,

You're spot on. Although the jobless claims reports, durable goods, etc have indicated that the economy is getting better it's tough to argue that things aren't exactly back to normal for everyone. Check out this guy's story from Fort Myers, Florida:

"Victor Vangelakos is the only buyer to take possession of his unit in the 32-story Tower 1 of the Oasis high-rise project in downtown Fort Myers".

http://www.news-press.com/article/20...ondo-wants-out

Boodleboy322

Its bad at the moment but its the same everywhere, over the long term there will be recovery but the media do overhype things and make out that everything is about to fall of a cliff. The Greece example also shows the benefits/negatives of being in the euro and what member states do to help each other

Things may be getting slightly better...at least where I am. On the whole, I think it'd be more accurate to say things aren't necessarily getting better but have just stopped getting worse.

Economy
 

Not a bad way to put it christiangirl.

Currency devaluation was a huge influence today as everyone and their dog where short the Euro. Today, Euro levels fell to levels not seen since 2006 as investors appear to be pricing in fears of a global deflationary spiral. Another factor throwing the Euro lower was a report that Nicholas Sarkozy, French President, allegedly threatened to pull France out the Euro currency if Germany didn't get totally on board with the "Bail Out" bus. There are definitely some high political tensions going on abroad. As an interesting note, French banks are the largest holders of Greek debt (by a landslide) and any currency they use is anticipated to go down periscope.

Here's a good article from Yahoo that sums up exactly what Christiangirl is saying. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-Thin...84008.html?x=0

Cheers,

Boodleboy322

I'm still feeling like things are getting worse.. or maybe we're just now feeling the full impact. The school districts are all reeling now from cuts. Some schools are cutting AP classes altogether, they've doubled, tripled (or implemented for the first time) "pay to play" activities (not just sports, all clubs, sports, etc.), initiating paying for parking, cutting hours, massive teacher layoffs, schools closing.. it goes on and on. My ex has been getting more interviews, but still no job offer (other than temporarily working as a census worker, which he is doing now). There are still lots of foreclosed houses hanging around, waiting to be sold. It was really obvious in the winter, after a snow, which houses were abandoned. Then it was hard to tell because we had no snow but the grass wasn't growing yet. Now the weeks are a foot tall at those houses so it's obvious again. There are too many of them. WAY too many of them. I wish I knew where "bottom" was going to be.

Considering I was laid off from my job 14 months ago, have only had 6 interviews since then, and haven't been offered a single one of those jobs... It's worse for me. Up until the last year, I was offered every single job I had ever interviewed for. But now... it's horrible. And my expertise is in such a limited field, it's very hard for me to convince people I can do something other than that.
I have a BS, 7 years of impressive professional experience... and can't find jack. I apply for jobs I'm not qualified for, and I'm told I'm not qualified. I apply for jobs I am qualified for, and I'm told I'm over qualified. I look for jobs by networking with former co-workers and subcontractors, online searches, and recruiting agencies. My resume and cover letter have had major overhauls after talking to some resume experts.
I've been told by someone who manages a retail business that people outside my field wont hire me because A:my former job position sounds intimidating, that I should dumb myself down a bit, because no one will hire someone they perceive as being smarter than them; and B: places outside of my field know that if they hire me, and I am offered something later on within my field of expertise, I will likely leave, and that will be a waste of time, training, etc for them.

so for me... "my" economy sucks. my only other idea is to go back to school and get some sort of bachelors plus certification, or my masters. but... i'm broke and have a shit-ton of student loans as it is... i wont be able to get anymore.

Economy
 

There's no doubt that we're still miles away from stabilization in the markets. As far as jobs are concerned it might not be a bad idea to consider relocation. Here's an article from Forbes that was put out back in November 2009 that ranks the top cities in America with good economic security. http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/19/cit...ten-chart.html

If you're hurting in the job market and returning to school is not an option at this time then it might not be a bad time to contact those fraternity brothers or sorority sisters that live in those MSAs to let you crash out on their couch while you set up your interviews.

Here are a few of this coming week's key economic indicators:
Tuesday: Producer Price Index and Housing Starts (8:30am EDT)
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (8:30am EDT)
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30am EDT)

Here's a complete list of all economic events for the coming week:
http://www.dailyfx.com/files/Calendar-05-16-2010.pdf

Cheers,

Boodleboy322

So wonderful to live halfway between the 98 rank and 92 rank cities. Wonderful.

Small signs but not there is not a bad way to look at it. This morning we saw a little bit of confidence in the Housing Starts data. +5.8% vs. March +5.0% (revised from +1.6%) at 672,000 unit rate vs. consensus 650,000 vs. March 635,00 (revised from 626,000).

Today, US Stocks dropped along with the Euro. The Euro is currently trading at $1.2699 to the US Dollar. The Dow hit a -115, Nasdaq -37 and the S&P 500 -16. Bonds took a flight to the sell off and rallied near futures close.

I think that once we start seeing some liquidity and investor confidence open up in the markets we'll get a better warm and fuzzy on the creation of new jobs.

Still as Pretty Boy puts it, "things are still jacked".

What's adding fuel to this whole thing is the whole financial reform thing where Senators introduce amendments one day and vote on them the following day. It's hard keeping up with all the amending and voting going on these days. Interestingly enough what is likely to become wealth shifting financial reform is happening in an election year. This stuff is huge for the business models of market makers and money managers. You can't help but wonder how the marketplace will react to misguided legislation.

Here's a pretty good site that can help you source some job opportunities in your area.

http://www.bestjobsusa.com/

Best of luck if you're out there and looking.

Cheers,

Boodleboy322

More Signs
 

There are certainly more signs that the economy is still not back to normal. Today, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released it's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/72905.htm for the week ending May 14, 2010. MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics, Michael Fratantoni, summed it up. Home mortgage "Purchase applications plummeted 27 percent last week and have declined almost 20 percent over the past month", despite relatively low interest rates. The data continues to suggest that the tax credit pulled sales into April at the expense of the remainder of the spring buying season. In fact, this decline occurred even as rates on 30yr fixed rate mortgages have continued to fall and at 4.83% are at their lowest level since November of 2009. Borrowers refinancing did react to the lower rates and refi applications went up almost 15%, hitting their highest level in nine weeks."

If this develops into a trend then the industry's worst fears may come true. Regardless of record levels of affordability purchase demand continues to go down a downward spiral following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The next question is where will new business generate if homebuyer demand got exhausted by the expiration of two tax credits? All while this is happening the fact of the matter is that 6.7 million Americans have been unemployed for longer than 27 weeks. This calls special attention to market participants that the broadest measure of unemployment, including discouraged workers and those who are underemployed, rose to 17.1% in April. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Not a problem for the Federal Reserve right? Interest rates can stay down - however, this ends up becoming a "I can't qualify" to purchase a home problem.

In my opinion, the Credit Scoring system is a bit outdated. The last time it was seriously revised was back in the 80s. Think about it - is the post sub prime meltdown era we live in today the same economy as it was back in the 80s? CDOs and hybrid investment instruments where not at the same magnitude as we saw several years back. You can learn more about credit here: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...re/scores.html and here http://ficoforums.myfico.com/fico/bo...essage.id=5048.

If you have bad credit I would strongly recommend getting educated on what you need to do to improve it. Credit not only impacts what you can borrow but is also a big factor for employers during the hiring process. For starters, make your payments and try to pay off any outstanding lines. I would suggest starting with the smaller ones and then moving to the bigger ones. Don't eliminate all your credit cards. 30% of what comprises your credit score includes current credit lines in standing. I hope this helps.

And, as always, there is good mixed in with the bad. I have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage. I don't have a crazy one, I have the "normal" kind from before they started going crazy with them. It adjusts once a year, is LIBOR(not sure which LIBOR, honestly) + 3.75%. It can only adjust by 2% each year (up or down) and it has done nothing but go down since I got it. I just got my new ARM statement for the next cycle and the rate is down to 4.25%. Between property tax decreases and mortgage interest decreases, my mortgage has gone from $1500 a month to below $1000 over the past 8 years. I'm floored. I haven't paid this little for housing since I rented a small one bedroom apartment.

On the flip side of that, I do owe more than it's worth, since its value has decreased so significantly. Also, as a result of lower property taxes, the infrastructure around here is falling apart though. And, as a result of all the foreclosures, neighborhoods are changing drastically, quickly.

I'll just keep trying to hang on tight and hope that I can make it through the roller coaster ride.