Out Break!
 

This past weekend I saw the movie "Out Break" for the first time. I know it's an old movie, but I don't watch a lot of movies. I just rented a few this weekend. I needed a break! :p

Well anyway, I thought it was a great movie and I wondered "what if"? I didn't agree with the whole movie though. I think it would be far worse if something like that were to really happen. The crazy thing about this kind of thing is for years we've been warned that some kind of pandemic is coming. There's a lot of terrorist threats of spreading viruses and diseases all over the world, and it's kind of scary. It could be the flu, or it could be something else, but whatever happens lots of people will die. As bad as this will be, on an ever more crowded planet, you can't help wondering whether the survivors might be better off in some ways. Of course we don't think this could happen to us though. Right?:rolleyes: I think people believe that society may have already achieved a scale, complexity and level of innovation that make it immune from collapse.

After watching "Out Break" I think a virus like that one would only be the start of our problems. So far I haven't heard of any scientific study that has looked at whether a pandemic with a high morality could cause social collapse, I mean at least none that has been made public. Does anyone know about the plague that hit Europe in the 14th Century? It had a huge impact, but it didn't collapse. It came close but it didn't. Things are different now, so I think it would have a more devastating effect.

Wouldn't it be easier to rebuild modern society into something more sustainable, if there were fewer of us? Would life ever return to something resembling normal after a devastating pandemic? Would you be ready for an Out Break if it ever were to happen? What about the outcome? Would it be something we could come out of and return to normal?

Cheerful...that's a conspiracy in the making...selective killing and breeding...that's borderline eugenics...speaking of...if you get some time...check out Gattaca.

You're good for starting a discussion with a long arse post. :p So here goes.

A pandemic wouldn't have a devastating effect because there are behind the scenes measures to prevent certain things from getting too out of hand. There are deserts with subsocieties waiting to be populated, and underground nations in preparation, so that we can have some refuge and recreate society. At least that's what the movies tell us so it might be true, right?

Now the only end-all and be-all is the Apocalypse. Then humans would have no say in the outcome becomes Jesus has returned to take us believers Home.

Okay.

Daemonseid and I share the same crack pipe. An empty crack pipe, of course.

It could be. I don't think it matters what it is. I think when it happens it will backfire if it's a conspiracy. If it's natural, I don't think we're prepared for it, and I think it will cause a serious domino effect on society.

Don't have much to say about it.

Just really love that movie!

It's a great movie.

I took an anthroplogy class a couple years ago called Plagues and People. Dealt with pandemics, epidemics...........all of that stuff. Pretty fascinating.

Well, I couldn't explain it without it being so long.:o

Well, look at the Roman empire that was hit by a plague with a similar death rate as the 14th century plague. I know it happened around 170 AD which is a different time period from today, but still the effects of it caused a downward spiral towards collapse. So why the difference? In the 14th century, Europe was a feudal hierarchy in which more than 80% of the population were farmers. Each death removed a food producer, but also a consumer, so there was little net effect. In a hierarchy, no one is so vital that they can't be easily replaced. The Roman Empire was also a hierarchy, but with a difference. It had a huge urban population, not equalled in Europe until modern times which depended on small farmers for grain, taxes and soldiers. Population decline effected agriculture, which effected the empire's ability to pay for the military, which made the empire less able to keep invaders out. The invaders further weakened the farmers and agriculture, and a high morality pandemic could trigger a similar result now. Think about it. Fewer consumers, and loss of personnel in key industries would really hurt us.

Pass the crack pipe pleeeze. lol :p

I agree.

I don't do crack. crack is for poor people. ;)

No drug tiers today please. ;)

It's empty because it was never not empty. Not because you smoked it all. ;)

Where did you get it from anyways?


Is it sanitary????????

Cheerful--

You ought to take a public health class after you take your first level microbiology and virology classes... These classes explain why the movie was dead wrong on viral transmission. But it is on point about what US AMRID will do if such a situation existed--i.e. nuking the place...

You should watch Legend with Will Smith if you liked Outbreak.

Also, the reason why viruses spread so far is because of filth and no controls on public health. It is conceivable that it could happen today with a different kind of virus unseen, because it did happen with Bird Flu (H5N1 strain). But Dr. Fauci literally stated a catastrophe of the situation to the Bush Admin to put more money in Global Public Health. Also there are now 3 strains of HIV in humans...

Some people are just plain nasty and funky... I am not talking about poor countries--I am talking about folks who live in the US.

Besides, if someone showed up with major quarantined viral infection and the physicians were astute enough ( :rolleyes: ), the "Andromeda Strain" protocol would be in effect... Now, that is a book and movie you should try to see.

It is thought the reason why Egyptian, Roman and European pestilences were devastating was due to water source contamination including chemicals and microbial-fecal contaminations; poor water treatment options and poor sanitation practices--cleaning out the leavened grain areas, etc.

Today if that same kind of thing were to happen in the US... Well, it already does and public health departments are sorely understaffed.

Public baths baaaaaaaaaad.

hey you heard about all the crap they are finding in tap water now

ETA: BTW...I meant to tell you earlier cherrful....we already have a pandemic....HIV.

I'd like to completely cosign with what AKAMonet said above and add a few things.
Outbreak is not an accurate movie in regard to viral transmission and epidemic at all. If you are interested in some good reading, I would suggest a few books--"Virus Hunter" by Dr. C.J. Peters and "The Coming Plague" by Laurie Garrett. They are a good place to get an understanding of some of the emerging diseases and their mechanisms. A caveat however, they can be dry reading and not at all like "Outbreak" or "the Hot Zone."
You might also check out one of the NOVA specials that was done in interviewing Ken Alibek, who defected from Russia as their former Chief Deputy of bioweaponry. He is someone I worry about.

Eh....

Yeah--an aging system with a short supply of potable water... Don't have a disaster and have immunity problems like HIV--you WILL die...

Somethings in water cannot be cleaned out. Like radioactive water or Hexa-valent Chlorohydrated water (in that one movie)...

Anyone remember The Hills Have Eyes when the deformed mountainers were drinking that thick green water?

Exaggerated social commentary mixed with "horror." But gross nonetheless.

I thought that was from inbreeding..but then I never really watched that flick to pay attention to the story.....heh

It seems to be a disgusting combination. I believe it was the original where Big Brain discussed the background of what happened with the nuclear testing and the drinking water. This movie made some people paranoid about people who live in the mountains and stuff like government testing. :(

Sidebar: I never saw the 1977 original The Hills Have Eyes. If I can ever find it, I heard it was good. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hil...yes_(1977_film)

AKA Monet, Yeah, I saw "I am Legend". I loved that movie. Exactly what I was talking about, and Daemon I would hardly call AIDS a huge pandemic. I was talking about something that could possibly end civilization as we know it. Something that would cause the loss of key people. I think the loss of key people would be very crucial. Think about it. Losing pieces indiscriminately from a highly complex system is very dangerous, and one of the most profound results of complex systems research is that when systems are highly complex, key individuals matter. I say this because these are the people whose actions link all the rest.

I don't know if you guys remember back in 2000 when a strike blocked petrol deliveries from the UK's oil refineries for 10 days, nearly a third of motorists ran out of fuel. Some train and bus services were cancelled, shops began to run out of food, hostpitals were reduced to running minimal services, hazardous waste piled up, and even bodies went unburied.

What would happen in a pandemic when a lot of truck drivers are sick, dead or too scared to go to work? Seriously, I think even if a pandemic were mild, many might have to stay at home to care for sick family members, or look after kids whos schools are closed. Even a small impact on road haulage would cause serious problems.

Other than AKA Monet, I don't think you guys are seeing the big picture. When I saw "Out Break" I was like "No way!" There has to be more to it than this. I mean c'mon, it's not the virus that would cause the biggest problem it's how it would effect everything else around us. Things we rely on to live. They really should have added these things to the movie. It would have been much more realistic.

Look at some of the companies that use or sell commodities from coal to asprin. Well, they really don't keep large stock piles of this anymore because it's so expensive. They rely instead on frequent small deliveries. So if delivery drivers are infected, or people they work with are, these companies are totally screwed.

I know in hospitals that they rely on daily deliveries of drugs, blood and gases. I guess if a pandemic broke out, they would have to make sure they had enough ventilators. Eventually they would run out of oxygen, because I would think they generally wouldn't have more than a two day supply, but I could be wrong on that. Equally critical is chlorine for water purification plants too. Trucks also need fuel, so what if staff at the refineries that produce it have the disease or are too scared to show up for work? Things that make ya go hmmm.

Thanks, AKA Monet, "I am Legend" is exactly what I'm trying to convey, if I haven't already.

AIDS? Oh please.:rolleyes:

btw: I was laughing SO hard at the "nasty and funky" comment.
lol lol lol.:p:p:p:D

Cheerfull..

I have to respectfully disagree....when millions are dying in Africa from this disease and you have new drug resistant strains popping up and we still aren't all that much closer to a vaccine or cure after 20 years...and more cases are popping up among young people around your age...it's not something we can brush off lightly.

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/ma...=nlfhivworld11

Daemon, I wasn't brushing it off at all. It's just that AIDS has its limitations.

How so?

AIDS can't live long without a host, and it's not airborne.

Thank God for that...but the problem is...it's still spreading thru other modes of contact and worst yet is that people have been told how to prevent it and yet still do not take precautions even when they are readily and widely available....what does that say about us as a species?

I'm just realizing that this was intended to be a real serious discussion. :)


My bad, homeslice.

I agree with cheerfulgreek about AIDS. That's what my "Eh..." response to Daemonseid's mention of AIDS was about.

I know what you're getting at, Daemonseid, and AIDS is a pandemic in many areas. It is correlated to a number of social variables including living conditions. However, AIDS isn't airborne as cheerfulgreek said and you can't get it through drinking water or touching someone on the elbow. So, it's similar but different than what cheerfulgreek and AKAMonet were getting at.

Technically, yeah.

But if we want a full perspective, we should include the people who are told in places including South Africa that having sex with virgins or babies can prevent or cure AIDS. Also consider the "out of sight, out of mind" approach to STDs and other diseases that is rampant in national and international communities where a lack of education/information interwines with a lack of resources?

I think of that Always commercial about the little girls in African communities who can't go to school because of their menstrual cycles. Imagine what's going on in similar areas when it comes to safe sex and STDs?

well you all are correct...

I am also looking at the fact that the fastest growing rate of new cases are among women, especially Black women so I figure no matter how we slice it...there is a huge problem on our hands as to how HIV and AIDS are both being dealt with worldwide.

Huge problem, yes.

A huge problem that we may all experience by merely coexisting, no.

But PLEASE sound the alarm when the government finishes developing that AIDS mosquito.

YES!!!! DSTCHAOS, you are right on.

Daemon, I'm not against anything you've said, it's just that AIDS isn't really effecting the things we need to survive. Who's to say that what's going on in Africa won't happen over here but on a much larger degree? I'm not sure if you know this, but cities typically have only three days worth of food, so if you think about it, civilizations being just three or four meals away from anarchy isn't taken seriously enough. No one, including me seems to think about running out of food or water. In the United States, plans for dealing with a pandemic call for people to keep at least three weeks worth of food and water stockpiled. How many of us are actually doing that? My kitty has more food and water stockpiled than I do.:p (she's so adorable)

Personally, I think 10 weeks is better, because how long would your stocks last if shops emptied and your water supply dried up? Even if everyone were willing, many people might not be able to afford to stockpile enough food. AIDS really doesn't effect us in this way, at least not to a degree where everyone is effected by it.

conspiracy theory thread please...

@Cheerful--if there EVER was a heinous virus or infection that murdered gajillions of people over broad ranges of climates and Earth with other elements, you had better believe the current policy is a "Scorched Earth Policy" with studies 500 feet below the Earth with the BEST minds on Earth...

The odds? I professionally think that humans are genetically diverse enough that there will be a few survivors to allow for reproduction and procreation.

@Daemond--HIV infects broadly in Africa because women have ZERO control over their sexuality and bodies. Women are brutalized, raped and demeaned so bad, that they would prefer to commit suicide, than to suffer the inhumanity they have suffered... As long as it is thought to be normal to stick guns up women's and girls' vaginas and anuses, then the transmission on HIV will continue...

I think I may be misunderstanding you, but are you saying that a collapse of civilization is impossible? You're saying that we would be able to come out of this, correct?:confused:

Civilization as we know it will collapse eventually, inevitably. It has happened before throughout history. Has it happened to humans due to infectious diseases? I would not say that it has, completely and somehow, humans have managed to scrape by when it comes to these things... It is thought that the ONLY mass human extinctions thought to occur to a group of human beings was smallpox... Variola vera, is highly contagious, but it does not stop procreation and reproduction. There are viruses out there that can stop procreation and reproduction, however, the problems associated with the infection occurs after those processes are needed, making it a chronic disease of aging. Namely, human papilloma virus and syphillis.

Now, if "the powers that be" genetically modified smallpox to a crazy more infectious agent without possible treatment options, then yes, we humans would not get through that onslaught, MAYBE...

Speaking of Ebola. Y'all should read some of Richard Preston's books. The Hot Zone is really good. All about the 1989 Ebola scare and the secret/covert military operations associated with it.

The Demon in the Freezer is damn good too. All about Smallpox and the threat of biological warfare. Talks all about the virus being eradicated, two stock piles of it being kept for research purposes at the CDC and in Siberia, Iraq and North Korea gaining access to the strains......just really good and frightening.

Thanks for explaining that to me.