Iowa Caucus Tonight
 

Anyone care? Anyone have any predictions?

I have no idea about the Dems... I think it will be a dead heat between the three front runners

For the Repubs:
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Giuliani
Thompson

I think the super-delegates will put Clinton over the top. And my guess is also that Romney might come out on top for the GOP.

I hope Edwards comes out of it for the Dems but it could be any of the big 3.

Is it sad that I already tune out all of the election coverage? And we still have eleven months to go!

I am in Iowa and always get excited during Caucus season in our little but mighty state!

I am really ready for the caucuses to be over this year.
I am ready for the constant automated phone calls to stop, the deluge of literature in the mail to cease, and the unending line of door knocking canvassers to GO AWAY!

Seriously folks...this week we have had about 20 phone calls, each day has about 6-10 pieces of mail (printed and "personal" endorsement letters from friends), and an average of 3 canvassers a day!!!

Seriously,
YES, I will caucus.
YES, I am a democrat and will be at my caucus.
YES, I KNOW where it is.
NO, I don't need a ride.
NO, I don't need a babysitter BUT I am bringing my 14 year old "baby" with to see this in action (and he is bringing his new camcorder to record it all)
NO, I don't know who I am caucusing for.
NO, I do not want to hear about how your candidate is the best.

I will feel so forgotten tomorrow ;). BUT, Right now I am the most popular voter on the planet...UNDECIDED!

^^ WOW. I do not envy you.

I've never met someone who was undecided when leaving for a poll, or caucus, where s/he will cast a ballot.

Can I ask you what will finally determine who you caucus for? Do you understand the issues and where each candidate stands on them (to me, the Dems seem so close on all them I haven't taken the time to sort them out). I can't envision heading out to vote/caucus without knowing - I'm one of those who spends days weighing issues even on bond votes - and I'm really curious what factors will go in to your decision.

Of course, it will be over and done before you get a chance to respond, given it's already nearly 7 on the east coast.

Heading out now...I am torn...yes I have read up on all the issues!

I will let you all know when I get back!

I don't think Paul will finish that high, and I hope that Thompson finishes third but of course I have no real idea.

I can remember posting with Shinerbock, I think it was, about how things would shake out, and I wasn't yet a Thompson fan, but I am now.

It's kind of odd when I talk to people about Fred, and I acknowledge that it's pretty narrow section of the electorate that I talk to about politics in RL, that most people I know who are likely to vote for a Republican like what Thompson seems to believe in but feel hesitant to vote for him because he's not already popular enough. This thinking seems bizarre to me at the start of primary season. I can understand feeling that way once you know he's lost a lot of delegates already, but not now when it's theoretically wide open.

I'm not even talking about making donations to his campaign; I just mean when I talk to people about who they might vote for and why.

ummm, football anybody?

LOL.

Heeeyyyyy, is THIS what happened in Ohio in '04 that gave us 4 more years of Chen...er, Bush?!? Nice. ;):p

I have to admit I like what Thompson has to say, but I've yet to see any action behind it. I feel he's an actor spouting lines the audience wants to hear. Wait .... oh.

I didn't sign his birthday card!:p

The acting background freaked me out for a while, but I'm over it.

What action could you have seen behind the talk other than the policy statements that he's put out on the issues?

Sincerely, what actions have we seen from anyone running on the Republican side that worked in a positive manner? (I mean the Huckabee attack video on Romney that he pulled buy showed was an action, I suppose, but not one that I think worked for anyone.)

Isn't it pretty much all talk and posturing from all of them?
(And, obviously I'm biased as I admitted, but it seems to me that Thompson has been working harder to actually articulate real principals and policies than the other GOP dudes, like the whole 15 minute video from the day before yesterday vs. the 30 second ads of the others.)

The caucus system is so interesting to me. I missed our state caucus in the last election because I was sick, but I'm going to go this year (Washington's are on Feb. 9). I'm encouraging my bf to go to his party's caucus, too. (I'm independent but lean democrat, and he's a republican).

Well, by action I meant doing something. Others are pointing to their records, which you can take as evidence (Ron Paul, for instance, tilting at windmills, or Romney, who makes me think there are lots of seesaws in my home state of Massachusetts, or Clinton, who actually has less time in the White House than others with the same type role she had). Thompson hasn't trotted out a record, that I've seen.

Leaves me wondering. I don't get the sense he wants the job. One question I've asked every political candidate I've met - Why do you want the job? Those who can't answer (and you'd be surprised how many there are, particularly at the local and state levels) don't get my vote.

His record in the Senate is definitely out there, and he discussed it during the debates when appropriate, I though. The 'doesn't really want the job" thing is floated out there, but he's answered it to my satisfaction.

Did you see the full Fred quotes about this in context this week?

He boils it down to wanting to serve the country as president and wanting to be able to do things only the president can do, but thinking that campaigning in the contemporary age is crap, which is really hard to argue with if you ask me.

Wooowwww, Huckabee and Obama projected... I really did not see those coming.

It's impressive Thompson secured 3rd place, and I bet the Clinton camp is more than a little thrown that not only did she not win, but she's in such a tight race for 2nd with Edwards.

WOW! I didn't see these figures coming - in either party!

Ok I am back!
 

Wow...everyone should enjoy the fun at least once in their life...

Iowa Caucus!

If you aren't familiar with the Iowa Caucus process, it is fairly easy to explain.
Everyone comes in and all the voters are counted once. Out of this total the number is calculated to determine "viability" of a candidate.

Our precinct had a record 451 voters turn out! Amazing. so it took 68 to be a viable candidate.

So after that point, it is time to align with your preference group. Which means..."you all go sit with your team and count yourselves and let the chair know".

So everyone gets up, moves and then starts counting. After the first alignment is reported, the viable groups are announced.

In our precinct the only initially viable groups were Obama, Edwards and Clinton. Almost viable was Richardson. Next largest but non-viable was Biden. Poor Dodd and Kucinich had 4 people each. No one showed up for Gravel.

THEN the fun begins, for the next 30 minutes, the non-viable groups are courted, sweet-talked and enticed to join the others. The Dodd and Kucinich groups joined in with the Richardson group immediately. It took some talking and a number of Biden supports moved over to Richardson. But the Richardson group stalled at 61. Not viable. More talking etc.

At the 15 minute mark, it becomes apparent that if the Richardson group can not get viablility those voters will have to align themselves with the other three. At this point, a number of Obama supports come over and sit with the Richardson group to make it viable. This tactic keeps the Richardson from being non-viable and the supporters perhaps going to the Edwards or Clinton groups. Should that happen, potentially Edwards or Clinton would beat Obama. Such backslapping politics at its best.

It ended up in my precinct Obama 172, Edwards 115, Clinton 95, Richardson 69.

The rest of the caucus is boring stuff...delegate elections, central committee elections etc etc etc.

^^^

Thanks for the update, Pam! I must have had the process explained to me I don't know how many times, but you made it really easy to follow this time around!

Thank you! It's really cool to get a first hand account. Greek Chat is so interesting for the diversity of the info. here.

Pretty shrew of the Obama supporters but seeing as Richardson's overall vote is so low, it much not have happen in many precincts.

That is really cool.

ETA: Jinx!

Thanks for the lesson! Without giving away your actual vote if you don't wish, can you share what some of the coaxing and persuasive speeches were like? What kind of things do supporters say to others to convince them to come to their corner? Did any fights break out? (ha!)

Sageofages explained how the Democrats caucus. I wasn't aware that the Republicans (in Iowa) caucused any differently until I was listening to NPR today. I caucused back in 2004 for the Democratic Party when I still lived in Iowa. The Republicans take a vote.

That is right...the republican caucus is OH SO BORING. You should up, you get counted, you cast a secret ballot. You do the other boring stuff, you go home.

The democratic caucus is out in the open, out loud and totally rocking fun!

That's only the Democratic caucus, though. The Republican caucuses are run somewhat differently. Explanation from the Des Moines Register.

We did not caucus tonight. [By my own fault] I am not informed nor passionate about any candidate and really have no feelings on the results.

Mr Sageofages and Sageofages son #1 and son #1's best friend all caucused for Obama. We had many many friends who caucused for Obama. I did not.

After the non-viable groups were announced, the Richardson group leaders went straight to Dodd's guys with a smile and said "join us please"...they did. The Kucinich guys were seated right behind the Richardson group so they didn't even have to get up and move, they just said "count us". The Biden Group was swarmed on by the big 3 right away, but they really didn't budge. After some "speechifying" by Big 3 supporters, a Richardson supporter got up and said "get to know us, help us be viable to give this worthy man a chance to be seen further on the stage". I think at that point about 90% of the Biden folks got up and joined the Richardson group.

Of course there were Obama, Edwards and Clinton guys over there talking trying to get Richardson people to move as well. After it became apparent that many of the Richardson folks were considering going Edwards or Clinton if they weren't viable, Obama group offered up the few were needed to be viable to keep the Richardson group intact.

This is also how the Washington Democrat caucuses do it, too. When I missed it in 2004, I watched one Democrat precinct in Seattle do it on TV and it was so interesting to watch people argue on behalf of their candidate and try to persuade the non-viable candidate folks to join their "side."

I feel the same way about Fred. I think he'll do well in South Carolina and if he can make it to Super Tuesday, he's going to do well in the south. Or maybe I should say that I hope he will.

Not that anyone really cares, but . . .

I hate Huckabee and I think his type of Republicanism is the last thing the county needs. More big government and simplistic moralizing with a good chance of foreign policy incompetence? No thanks.

If he gets the nomination, I'm not going to vote or might vote for Obama if he is in fact the Democratic nominee. I'd probably stay home if Giuliani is the nominee as well, but I don't know that I'd feel like I had to vote against him.

I could happily vote for Romney, McCain, Thompson and I although there's not much chance of it happening, I could even vote for Ron Paul in risking-bringing-on-the-apocalypse-as-a-way-of-getting-a-change kind of thing.

The Obama and Huckabee "Thank You" speeches after being declared winners of their Iowa caucuses could not have been any different. Go to www.cnn.com to watch the speeches.


Breaking news from CNN: Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have both decided to withdraw from the race.

Wow... Just wow. I get an email from Barack saying he won... Wow...

First the Fatboys break up and now this... ;)

I am thrilled that Obama did so well. :D I also thought that his speech afterward was really powerful.

Go Obama, Go!!!:D:D:D

I got that same email! I was thrilled that that was the first email I got this morning. Thanks, Iowa! :D

The coverage I was watching showed statistics for different demographics (age, income, sex, etc.), and Obama overwhelmingly took the under 30 vote. I think that is interesting! It might also explain how he could pull out 8 points ahead when the polls had him at dead even - since so many young people don't have land line telephones to respond to polls.

I'm not registered to vote in TN's Democrat primary, so I haven't researched his ideas that in depth yet. But like UGAalum94, I could be easily motivated to vote for Obama depending on who the other candidate(s) is(are). There's absolutely no way whatsoever in a million years that I would vote for Hillary. And I'd even be forced to vote for another candidate that I detest just to vote against her. I think that if the Democrats want any hope of pulling Republicans in November, they should pick Obama.

It's going to be an interesting year! And I hope that the nominations are still undecided when the primaries come to Tennessee - I like feeling like my vote actually matters.

BARAAAAAAAAAACK!

Seriously, I haven't felt this much hope for our country in a long time.
________
Problems with wellbutrin

No such luck. I've been vomitting nonstop for the last 7, and I've still had to endure the Bush-Cheney s#%@.

He also took the women's vote, 35% versus 30% for Hillary. That hurt her bad, and was a surprise to the political pundits.

I don't know why it was such a shock. For starters, she's just not very likable. Couple that with the fact that many women of Gen X and Y (and a smidge older) probably don't have drive to put a woman in the Oval Office simply because she has ovaries. We weren't privy to the struggles of gaining equality like the older generations were. We had strong, competent women to look up to, like Sally Ride, Madeleine Albright, et al, and know deep down that it will be possible and probable that a woman will be president, because we were brought up with the message (and the proof) that women can be anything they want to be.