I think this is what has happened at Arkansas. Big cuts early then nominal ones made the rest of the week which result in those big pledge classes. I have been pushing for bigger cuts to also occur later in the week but not meeting quota would be disastrous!

The formula is based on past performance. It isn't arbitrarily set. However, the poster stated what quota was. It may be that the two chapters limited their bids lists and the other two didn't. Since RFM tries to place everyone, it isn't surprising that the numbers range over so much. The ones left after A and B culled their lists were all given to C and D. Thus they set actual quota lower and placed all the extras. Makes perfect sense to me.

Thanks for the responses. I understand more now, and I am especially glad to be corrected on the COB misinformation.

I am figuring out this system is a whole lot more involved/complicated than I ever imagined. Like, do these "RFM specialists" travel around, or does each campus have its own? Do they control for chapters inviting back totally overlapping girls (ie ladybug's scenario of 3 chapters, same 100 pnms and quota of 40) or is it just based on total numbers? Is the formula based on last years' numbers, a few years' data, or just pnm rankings from the current parties that you just finished? I'm not really asking for answers--and they're probably buried in another thread somewhere--but the more I find out, the more questions I have. It's amazing how little most of us actives know about how the process actually works. (And I'm a senior and don't ever have to worry about it again!) You really have to trust the people running the show, and it's sometimes hard when you see stuff like this happen.

BTW, all the new member numbers I have heard are dead-on with what irishpipes has posted. The quota number she lists is what we were told. Also, A and B have new member pictures or lists on their blogs/websites that verify the size of their incoming classes.

Again, I am not in the know, but it sounds like A really cut too heavily early on and ended up with way too few girls at pref (like less than 2x where x=quota). I don't know if that was voluntary, but we have so many good girls go through that I can't imagine even an historically strong recruiting chapter making bigger cuts than they have to. If it was because of the RFM "formula", hopefully they'll make some adjustments in the future.

One of the topics I teach to college students is forecasting, and I always tell them that the first rule of forecasting is that forecasts are always wrong. RFM specialists are making their best guesses about return rates based on past years' data. If they were 100% correct all of the time, they wouldn't be RFM specialists, they'd be day traders.

"[T]hey'd be day traders," Mbwahahahahahah! (wiping away laugh tears)

Basically the RFM specialists are kind of like your mom and dad giving you $1000 to spend for the year's school clothes and telling you that's it for the year - you won't get a penny more. They will, however, not influence your choices at all. If you want to blow the whole wad at the Jimmy Choo store and be wearing last year's shirts, that's your business.

Girls who have parents that do this learn to budget wisely and assess what will last the longest and give the most wear. They may make some really bad steps along the way, but that's part of what their parents are trying to teach them - a lesson that they would have never learned if the parents kept giving them money all the time.

There are too many chapters out there who I dare say overvalue their own popularity because for years and years they've had nothing but full parties. Finding out that not everyone rates you #1 is a good thing, in the long run. Many of those girls at your full parties may have only been there to give you the once-over and knew dang well they would not fit in at all.

Isn't it the case that when quota additions come into play, they, QAs, would go first to chapters with lower memberships?

I think from what people have said on here, that is recommended, but not required.

Love it. I'll bet your students love you.

I really don't understand quota additions (adding things to my list. . . ) other than to know that it's how many over quota that you take. All of us lose members between semesters to internships, transfers, deactivation etc, but several chapters were under chapter total last spring, including chapter B. http://www.k-state.edu/greek/resourc...0-%20Final.pdf It really doesn't make sense that they not only didn't get QAs, but were under quota as well. ???

[Someone tell me if I should delete that link. Anyone can google it, but still. . . ]

Yes. The GA is supposed to place women to the best of her ability balancing chapter parity and PNM preference. We've talked through a lot of examples in various threads, but often the end result is that the chapters who have had the weakest recruitment or retention numbers end up with the biggest NM classes.

It's a shame that occasionally a traditionally strong recruiting chapter misses quota (the same thing happened at my alma mater last year), but I come from the school of thought that COB can be a way to grab some outstanding women who otherwise wouldn't participate in Greek life.

\

Okay, so if the prediction is that more than half the women will rank this group as their #1, they absolutely SHOULD have less than 2x quota at their pref parties. The question is why it would happen that the prediction should be off several times in a short time frame.

The problem, of course, is that formulas are not humans, and while they can make good predictions, they sometimes miss the obvious. Let me give an example:

Let's say there are 10 groups on campus, and return rates for the first invitational round at XYZ are 85% in 2009, 90% in 2010, and 95% in 2011. A basic trend projection would obviously predict a 100% return rate in 2012. But you and I, who are human beings with real thoughts, know that no chapter is ever going to achieve a 100% return rate. In fact, it's very possible that the chapter will top out at 95%.

Further, the RFM models are all based on past years' data, i.e. they are strictly time series models, not associative models. They don't know that XYZ's main competition just built a gorgeous new house or there is a rumor going around that XYZ is on social probation, or any number of other things that can cause a chapter to over- or under-perform in a given year.

So, in short, forecasting is very, very difficult, and the outcomes are not perfect, but RFM is miles ahead of its predecessor and has done much to level the playing field.

RFM specialists do not travel to the campuses. they are assigned a number of campuses, usually 6-10 depending on size, and communicate via phone and email with the GAs as recruitment moves forward. not only does each chapter have an invite list, they have a flex list of women to add if circumstances warrant. One of the issues is that chapters sometimes tend to rely on the formula to get them the needed number of attendees at a party when they need to be targeting those invites. Reducing the numbers the better recruiting chapters can bring back challenges them to do this.

I completely agree. I was just providing another example for the poster who was talking about certain "strong" chapters not making quota.

And another piece that I'm assuming is not considered is who is their primary competition. If ABC gets 95% return rates and DEF gets 95% return rates and they are head to head for preference, and they both are only inviting 2X quota (and quota is estimated low, which has been mentioned here), there is a strong possibility of a quota miss, especially if there is a 3rd chapter involved that has 85% return rates and gets to invite maybe 2 1/2X quota.

That's why I think they should be a little looser with the invitations to preference. HOWEVER, that will increase the chances of a rushee getting her 3rd choice, which we all know can be problematic. So I don't see any magic bullet. I think increasing the number of chapters should help alleviate some of this, but I can't quantify how. It just seems like spreading the wealth would diminish the intensity for 1 or 2 chapters.