I think Matt is going to win. They showed the whole foot injury thing to give us doubts which, in Survivor style, means he wins anyway.

I wish they didn't show so much in the previews (like that the merge was happening next week).

They are also editing things to make us think that Rob will be the target which makes me think he will not be, at least not yet.

Exactly.

They usually preview the merge -- and I had to laugh when they did. So much for Zapatera keeping Dave around for tribal strength they'll never need again. (I was hoping Dave would pull it off.)

So that makes it 5-6 Zapatera-Ometepe. Phillip and his delusions will bolt, making it it 6-5 for a Zapatera alliance. But Matt will return, making for a 6-6 situation. It will be interesting to see what Dave and Andrea do.

Will Matt stay loyal to the tribe that voted him out? I'm not sure about that.

I was with the people who said they were disappointed that the active players got to know what happened on Redemption, but it's kinda balanced out by the fact that the ousted player gets to be a Blabby McBlabbypants. I wonder if in future editions people will take that into consideration when deciding who to vote out (and who to send to watch the duel)...also, I wonder if the freedom to speak will stay around in future editions. It seems like too much power to give someone that is now out of the game.


I knew Sarita was going because they edited TOO hard for David in the beginning. They finally showed some strategic thinking, but it may be too little, too late. I think the decision to throw that challenge bit them in the ass, hard. Russell was good a challenges, and Krista proved she could be as well. They got rid of the wrong people to win challenges too soon.

At least up to a few weeks ago, the Insider clips at CBS indicated that he still considers himself part of Ometepe. Add to that that it's the people from Zapatera who have been running their mouths, I'm not sure he would see value in aligning with what may appear to him to be a somewhat dysfunctional and non-strategic Zapatera. And I would think Rob would be working to get him, for the sake of numbers if nothing else.

And I could be totally wrong.

As irritating as Phillip is, he's so damn entertaining with his bizarre analogies & pink panties. LOL!

As for the merge, I foresee both tribes working hard to woo Matt (after he wins against Sarita) to their side. Who will he choose is still the mystery. I don't think he'd go back to the tribe that voted him out but then again, I don't know if he'd like the other tribe after all that the Stephanie was saying about them.

Next week will be interesting.

Poor Matt! Short stay back with the tribe and right back to R.I.

This merge is a tough one thus far. Both sides wary of the other and will be more so now that Matt, who was the one approached to flip, was sniffed out by Rob and eliminated yet again. The other guys likely think that Ometepe is absolutely solid.

I really wonder if Matt actually said anything out there that DIDN'T add to the Jesus Freak image they've got for him, or if the producers just happened to use every word out of his mouth that talked about God/Jesus/being Christian. Either way, I'm getting a little tired of it. It would be better if the edit didn't come off so mocking.

I also wonder if Matt makes it back again (which, based on previous history, has a good chance of happening) and wins it, if people will try and downplay the win because he didn't spend much time in the ACTUAL game. Of course, he would be coming back with no alliances, unless Andrea is still around. His only chance is if he ends up coming back in a tie-breaking vote situation and both sides need him for their "cause". Even then, he'll probably have to go pray about what to do, instead of using an ounce of strategic thinking.:p

I think the dynamics will be different with Redemption Island this time. Originally, tribes were voting off weak players so they would be more likely to win challenges. After a merge, the votes tend to be for stronger players who are threats. Given that change, Matt may not keep winning those challenges.

Not only would he return (if he indeed returns) with no alliance, but he would return with few enemies since he hasn't voted many people out. I don't think he'll be the one to return though. He did vote against Steve so that alliance is probably ticked at him. In fact, they described the move by the other alliance as "genius"! I agree. That was the right move. They managed to flush out an idol and got rid of the swing vote.

True enough about getting better competitors on RI. He didn't do so well in last night's challenge against everyone...although I was surprised at who did and didn't do well in that challenge. I also found out that I still don't know everyone's name, including the girl who won the challenge and the guy for whom Ralph played the idol.

I almost think Rob's got this won. It would be foolish to get caught orchestrating his blindside - before or after the fact, since he'd be a pretty good bet to make it back from RI. Their only chance is to get him after the person comes back from RI, but before the final challenge, if there is such a time...

Speaking of which, when do we think the person would come back? It doesn't seem fair to let someone back in for the final challenge (or straight into the Final 3), but that seems like the time that would make sense.

I agree with your whole post, Dee. Particularly this:
I wish I remembered previous merge numbers, but 12 seems like a lot. Since there's still a lot of game left to play, I think they merged early to take advantage of RI, but will end it before the numbers get too low. I predict the person will return from RI once they've whittled the tribe down to 6. Total guess, of course.

I think Matt will continue to do well at RI. He had much more success on his own (with only one competitor) than at either attempt as a tribe member. Plus, the Jesus-edit seems to fit the solitude of RI. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it back in the game, but I don't know that he has any real chance of winning. I agree, AlphaFrog, that Rob just might pull off a win this time. Part of me hopes so.

I loved Rob's name for the tribe and how he came up with it, snowing everybody into believing it meant something when it is the name of one of Amber's stuffed animals. Hilarious! I find him so entertaining.

It was genius. I don't know that they'd be ticked at him, though. He didn't betray them, he just didn't accept their offer, which they knew was a possibility.

I still think the reason Matt's getting such a heavy religious edit (aside from the fact that seems to be him, and aside from the "Christian Coaltion" discussion, which was a blunder on Mike's part) is that he's getting the "Jesus edit" -- redemption and all. Whether that means he gets to the end, I'm not sure, but I see him going a ways more.

But he did himself in running his mouth. He'd still in Murlonio (and I agree, that was hysterical) if he had just told Rob about Mike's offer and the idol information but left out that he had considered it, even for a minute, or has talked about other plans with Andrea. The boy has no guile, adding to the Jesus edit.

See, I don't think there's anything Matt could've done to keep Rob from voting him out. Rob decided early on that Matt needed to go, and I don't think he has ever wavered on that decision. I think Rob considers Matt to be his biggest threat, and as long as Rob is part of the tribe (or at least, as long as he's telling others who to vote for), I don't see Matt being welcomed back into the fold. Ever. Honestly, the only way I see Matt having a chance is by beating Rob on RI.

Except that before that chat with Matt, Rob was talking about getting rid of Mike. If Matt had stopped with "Mike tried to recruit me and even offered me a final four spot and HII protection, and he's gunning for you," he could have solidified the plan to get rid of Mike in Rob's mind. Based on the fact that Ralph gave his HII to Mike and not Steve, Matt didn't tell them Steve was now the target (which is what he thought) and all of old Zapatera thought Mike was the target. There was clearly a dynamic going on that made it look like Rob wanted Mike out.

I'm not saying Rob would have brought Matt into the inner circle or truly trusted him. But I do think Matt might have hung around a little longer (and had a little more time to develop some options, though I'm frankly not sure he's capable of doing that) if he hadn't spilled his guts to Rob -- or, of course, if he had accepted Mike's offer.

Meanwhile, in my fantasy, someone from Zapatera realizes what's going on or at least what might be happening and Ralph plays his HII, offering it to a surprised Matt instead of Mike. That move saves Matt and probably gains his loyalty, while old Ometepe is now lower in numbers and without one of it's strongest competitors.

I can dream.