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-   -   The 2008 presidential field at-a-glance (https://greekchat.com/gcforums/showthread.php?t=84049)

nittanyalum 01-31-2008 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jon1856 (Post 1592215)
CBS Radio just reported that Mitt has a media buy for this up coming week in the 7 figures.

Holy crap (pun intended). Just think what that kind of money could do in New Orleans/the Gulf Coast or in other similarly needed demographics... it's obnoxious (and I know it's not only him -- the whole process is a gaudy, wasteful, disgraceful mess).

AGDee 01-31-2008 08:48 PM

I think things like the primaries/caucuses and the electoral college made sense before we had the type of communication and instant results that we have today. Why not just have all the primaries and caucuses on the same day throughout the whole country a few weeks before the conventions? Why are we dragging it out this long? It will be pretty much be decided on Super Tuesday and then we have 9 long months of campaigning one on one. What a nightmare!

jon1856 01-31-2008 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nittanyalum (Post 1592221)
Holy crap (pun intended). Just think what that kind of money could do in New Orleans/the Gulf Coast or in other similarly needed demographics... it's obnoxious (and I know it's not only him -- the whole process is a gaudy, wasteful, disgraceful mess).

Well, while they did not give figures, story also said that Barack is running media in 20 of the 22 states while Hilary currently has media buys in less than 15.

jon1856 01-31-2008 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGDee (Post 1592224)
I think things like the primaries/caucuses and the electoral college made sense before we had the type of communication and instant results that we have today. Why not just have all the primaries and caucuses on the same day throughout the whole country a few weeks before the conventions? Why are we dragging it out this long? It will be pretty much be decided on Super Tuesday and then we have 9 long months of campaigning one on one. What a nightmare!

Agree. Or as posted before 10 mini-super Tuesdays.
And just think of the nine months of dirt...........

UGAalum94 01-31-2008 09:59 PM

I think the only ads that I've seen are Obama ads.

AGDee 01-31-2008 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jon1856 (Post 1592235)
Agree. Or as posted before 10 mini-super Tuesdays.
And just think of the nine months of dirt...........

I figure, if we already have people dropping out after only a handful of states have had primaries that even 10 mini-super Tuesdays wouldn't work. After two weeks of it, then 10 states would have had their primaries and people would still drop out at that point if they weren't doing well.

Drolefille 01-31-2008 10:34 PM

Then small states wouldn't get any attention or their needs/wants addressed at all.

Just like whole Super Tuesday thing is an example of people getting too clever for themselves "We'll all be relevant at ONCE!" Actually if anything the states after Super Tuesday may decide it. I don't think the Democratic nomination will be over on Tuesday. Unless it's a landslide it'll be too close to call.

jon1856 02-01-2008 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGDee (Post 1592324)
I figure, if we already have people dropping out after only a handful of states have had primaries that even 10 mini-super Tuesdays wouldn't work. After two weeks of it, then 10 states would have had their primaries and people would still drop out at that point if they weren't doing well.

In many ways true.
However, at least the populations of at least 10 or 20 states would have a say rather than one or two.

GeekyPenguin 02-01-2008 01:18 AM

The Obama media buy in the Twin Cities was insane - I can't have the radio or TV on for more than five minutes without hearing/seeing him.

Drolefille 02-03-2008 03:48 PM

http://www.dipdive.com/

I wish that this^ video would be played during the Superbowl. Too bad it's too long for that. When it boils down to it, this is why me, and people like me, want Obama. Because he's giving us hope that politics and our country can be more than Us vs. the world and Red vs. Blue. No one's expecting it to happen over night, but it's been a long time since we've had someone pointing us in that direction at all.

LeslieAGD 02-03-2008 04:05 PM

I think Obama shot himself in the foot by saying at the CNN debate that he believes driver's licenses should be issued to undocumented immigrants. Although he was likely trying to appeal to Latino primary voters, I don't think he's going to win much favor with that kind of policy.

Drolefille 02-03-2008 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD (Post 1593563)
I think Obama shot himself in the foot by saying at the CNN debate that he believes driver's licenses should be issued to undocumented immigrants. Although he was likely trying to appeal to Latino primary voters, I don't think he's going to win much favor with that kind of policy.

I don't know, I think I agree with him.
As of now they're driving without a license or insurance. They haven't been tested.
Let them get licensed, which requires proof of insurance, and you reduce the likelihood that the next guy who smashes into your car is uninsured. There are many people here who, other than being here, don't have a wish to break laws and would rather have a license and insurance.

It doesn't solve the immigration issue, but it's not meant to. It's designed to address a concrete problem now while working on an immigration solution.

Sadfly 02-03-2008 05:18 PM

Well, I've already voted because I can't get to the poll before they close on Tuesday. I know that the rest of my family are staunch Republications but that's their decision. I don't tell them who I vote for, no matter the election, because it's always the opposite of who they voted for. They start talking politics and I leave the room.

Significant Other voted for McCain..not because he's the best choice, SO is afraid of Huckabee. So am I.

Interesting that the only signs I've seen in the neighborhood are 1 each for Ron Paul, Romney and Huckabee.:rolleyes:

jon1856 02-03-2008 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drolefille (Post 1593584)
I don't know, I think I agree with him.
As of now they're driving without a license or insurance. They haven't been tested.
Let them get licensed, which requires proof of insurance, and you reduce the likelihood that the next guy who smashes into your car is uninsured. There are many people here who, other than being here, don't have a wish to break laws and would rather have a license and insurance.

It doesn't solve the immigration issue, but it's not meant to. It's designed to address a concrete problem now while working on an immigration solution.

Part of me agrees while part of me disagrees.
Remember-a drivers' license is not a right, it is a privilege.
Also, licenses were a part of "security" even before 9/11.
And one hears of too many people driving "naked" without insurance or just under-insured; either against the law or because it is not mandatory in a given state.
And would all "undocumented immigrants" really want to spend any time with an officer of the law?

scbelle 02-03-2008 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drolefille (Post 1593584)
I don't know, I think I agree with him.
As of now they're driving without a license or insurance. They haven't been tested.
Let them get licensed, which requires proof of insurance, and you reduce the likelihood that the next guy who smashes into your car is uninsured. There are many people here who, other than being here, don't have a wish to break laws and would rather have a license and insurance.

It doesn't solve the immigration issue, but it's not meant to. It's designed to address a concrete problem now while working on an immigration solution.

Precisely. Which is why he also said almost in the same breath that if we're able to pass comprehensive immigration reform, the driver's license issue will be a moot point.

I happen to agree with him as well. It is a public safety issue. It's not an ideal solution, but there aren't many of those in politics.

GeekyPenguin 02-05-2008 11:30 PM

I just got home from the caucus. My ward went for Obama 162-113. It was really interesting! I got elected to be a delegate at the next level.

skylark 02-05-2008 11:37 PM

Congrats Geeky Penguin!

AGDee 02-06-2008 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeekyPenguin (Post 1594912)
I just got home from the caucus. My ward went for Obama 162-113. It was really interesting! I got elected to be a delegate at the next level.

Does that mean you're going to the National Convention? Or is there another level between now and then?

nittanyalum 02-06-2008 02:07 AM

Watching all the talking heads discuss the results... I love all the ruckus around Huckabee and how desperate they want the GOP field to remain a "3-man-race". They keep trying to make the question "What do you make of Huckabee's results?" really poignant and mysterious. Uhhhh, evangelical right, anyone? The hard right has no one else to vote for. I think it's great that he's staying in the race, keep draining the votes from the other two and keeping the splits alive. And ugh, just caught a glimpse of Rick Santorum standing behind Mitt Romney at some speech. One more reason for me to dislike Romney. I DETEST Santorum.

Unregistered- 02-06-2008 03:38 AM

I just came home from a Super Tuesday Happy Hour watching party (it's 9:30, ya'll ;) ) and Maya Soetoro-Ng (Barack's sister) was on hand to thank everyone who showed up. I think we violated a bunch of fire codes in that restaurant.

It was like the SuperBowl all over again.

LeslieAGD 02-06-2008 06:36 AM

Delegate Question
 
What happens to pledged delegates when a candidate drops from the race (ie - Edwards had 26 and Thompson had 5)?
Do they disappear, get reallocated, something else...?

scbelle 02-06-2008 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD (Post 1595080)
What happens to pledged delegates when a candidate drops from the race (ie - Edwards had 26 and Thompson had 5)?
Do they disappear, get reallocated, something else...?

I know that Edwards suspended his campaign, so technically, he can still EARN delegates, should he meet the threshold 15% of the vote. That might have been entirely possible in CA... I know early in the return, my friend in CA was lamenting the fact that Edwards was carrying 10% of the vote and wasn't even really in the race. What will most likely happen with his delegates is he will endorse a candidate and ask them to vote for the person he endorses. His delegates won't be bound to his request, though. A portion of his delegates will be reapportioned between Clinton and Obama based on the vote from the earlier states (IA, NH and SC). When a candidate drops out, their pledged delegates are usually released from obligation to vote for that candidate, so they are free to vote for another candidate.

honeychile 02-06-2008 11:48 AM

Does anyone else really get a little crazy over trying to figure out how each state & each party decides their delegate distribution? It seems so unfair to me that California, with such a high population is "winner takes all" (at least for the Democrats). According to Yahoo!, Clinton took 52% and Obama took 42% of the vote, yet Clinton took all the delegates.

Can anyone recommend a really good map or list for each state, and the delegate distribution?

jon1856 02-06-2008 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by honeychile (Post 1595150)
Does anyone else really get a little crazy over trying to figure out how each state & each party decides their delegate distribution? It seems so unfair to me that California, with such a high population is "winner takes all" (at least for the Democrats). According to Yahoo!, Clinton took 52% and Obama took 42% of the vote, yet Clinton took all the delegates.

Can anyone recommend a really good map or list for each state, and the delegate distribution?

Just about any of the news sites have maps; this is the link to MSNBC's:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

What I find odd is that it seems that some states have their party primaries on different days?!?!?!?!?

honeychile 02-06-2008 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jon1856 (Post 1595157)
Just about any of the news sites have maps; this is the link to MSNBC's:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

What I find odd is that it seems that some states have their party primaries on different days?!?!?!?!?

Yes, but they rarely say State - Primary or Caucus - #Dem Delegates #Rep Delegates Winner take all/Congressional District/whatever.

I've explained how it's done in PA, and people are amazed.

scbelle 02-06-2008 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by honeychile (Post 1595150)
Does anyone else really get a little crazy over trying to figure out how each state & each party decides their delegate distribution? It seems so unfair to me that California, with such a high population is "winner takes all" (at least for the Democrats). According to Yahoo!, Clinton took 52% and Obama took 42% of the vote, yet Clinton took all the delegates.

Can anyone recommend a really good map or list for each state, and the delegate distribution?

California is not a winner-take-all for Democrats. No state is. The DNC divides the delegates in each state based on congressional district and population. I'm not sure about the Republican side, if CA is a WTA state or not.

And I happen to like www.mydd.com for delegate counts. It keeps a list of the states and how many delegates each candidate has received. It also has a list of all the "superdelegates" that have endorsed and those who haven't yet.

honeychile 02-06-2008 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scbelle (Post 1595173)
California is not a winner-take-all for Democrats. No state is. The DNC divides the delegates in each state based on congressional district and population. I'm not sure about the Republican side, if CA is a WTA state or not.

That's what I always thought. Yet, both CNN & FoxNews said last night that it was.

Quote:

And I happen to like www.mydd.com for delegate counts. It keeps a list of the states and how many delegates each candidate has received. It also has a list of all the "superdelegates" that have endorsed and those who haven't yet.
Thanks - I'll have to take a look.

KSig RC 02-06-2008 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by honeychile (Post 1595178)
That's what I always thought. Yet, both CNN & FoxNews said last night that it was.

I watched a LOT of Fox last night, and I don't recall them saying anything like this - in fact, they continuously pointed out how anything less than a win by huge margins (such as 25%+) would make CA, effectively, a wash . . . which guys were you watching?

nittanyalum 02-06-2008 01:33 PM

^^^Perhaps they were projecting forward to the actual presidential race where in the electoral college (in at least 48 of the states) it is winner-take-all -- maybe they were discussing how each candidate was performing in the state in the primary and projecting how much of the other candidates' votes they'll need to pull in order to get all of the state's delegates in the general election.

skylark 02-06-2008 01:34 PM

From C-span: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/e...CTION=POLITICS

They report that in Calif., Hillary got 42 delegates and Obama got 23. This is consistent with all the news coverage I've heard that has reported that ALL the democratic caucuses give proportional delegates -- no democratic caucus is winner take all.

LeslieAGD 02-06-2008 01:47 PM

Honestly, I hate all these friggin' websites! Every single one has different numbers concerning the delegates. :mad:

KSig RC 02-06-2008 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD (Post 1595226)
Honestly, I hate all these friggin' websites! Every single one has different numbers concerning the delegates. :mad:

This is because they're estimating differently; vote tallies aren't final, and "superdelegates" aren't finalized at all, although some have intimated they will follow the popular vote, some have ties to Clinton/Obama, and some are likely to follow brokered deals at the DNC if Obama pulls off the remaining states (which are mostly Midwestern or have a large black population) and keeps things effectively deadlocked. Clinton has a large edge in superdelegates right now, but that could rapidly change.

I wouldn't worry about actual delegate counts at all, actually - they'll be fluid until the DNC, plus Michigan and Florida delegates are going to try to be seated (and no one knows what the hell will happen there), plus superdelegates have no structure to their votes. Absolutely no one will know or agree.

skylark 02-06-2008 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD (Post 1595226)
Honestly, I hate all these friggin' websites! Every single one has different numbers concerning the delegates. :mad:

Some of the changing might be because not all states have everything counted (which is the case in Calif.) so estimates of the final delegate count vary for a certain amount of time, I guess.

Another discrepancy I've seen is that some websites are counting the "superdelegates" as if they had already been pledged to a certain candidate, which isn't the case at all. The superdelegates can go however they want to come the national convention. If you take out the superdelegates, the most recent delegate counts have Barack ahead of Hillary.

skylark 02-06-2008 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KSig RC (Post 1595244)
This is because they're estimating differently; vote tallies aren't final, and "superdelegates" aren't finalized at all, although some have intimated they will follow the popular vote, some have ties to Clinton/Obama, and some are likely to follow brokered deals at the DNC if Obama pulls off the remaining states (which are mostly Midwestern or have a large black population) and keeps things effectively deadlocked. Clinton has a large edge in superdelegates right now, but that could rapidly change.

jinx, you owe me a coke :-)

nittanyalum 02-06-2008 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skylark (Post 1595249)
jinx, you owe me a coke :-)

I love that ad with Carville and Frist. :p

KSig RC 02-06-2008 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skylark at 6:21 (Post 1595249)
jinx, you owe me a coke :-)

Quote:

Originally Posted by KSig RC at 06:19
I am awesome

Looks like I beat you there by a few minutes - this means you owe me the Coke, shooter. Hey, I don't make the rules.

jon1856 02-06-2008 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by honeychile (Post 1595150)
Does anyone else really get a little crazy over trying to figure out how each state & each party decides their delegate distribution? It seems so unfair to me that California, with such a high population is "winner takes all" (at least for the Democrats). According to Yahoo!, Clinton took 52% and Obama took 42% of the vote, yet Clinton took all the delegates.

Can anyone recommend a really good map or list for each state, and the delegate distribution?

If you follow links on CNN's site, you find out a great deal:
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

GeekyPenguin 02-06-2008 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGDee (Post 1594942)
Does that mean you're going to the National Convention? Or is there another level between now and then?

I wish - I'm going to the Senate District/County Unit Convention. After that is the Congressional District Convention, then the State Convention, then the National. I won't be living in this state anymore before the national so I'm applying with the state I'm moving to for a superdelegate position. :)

AGDee 02-06-2008 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeekyPenguin (Post 1595456)
I wish - I'm going to the Senate District/County Unit Convention. After that is the Congressional District Convention, then the State Convention, then the National. I won't be living in this state anymore before the national so I'm applying with the state I'm moving to for a superdelegate position. :)

Very cool! Good luck!

Unregistered- 02-06-2008 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeekyPenguin (Post 1595456)
I wish - I'm going to the Senate District/County Unit Convention. After that is the Congressional District Convention, then the State Convention, then the National. I won't be living in this state anymore before the national so I'm applying with the state I'm moving to for a superdelegate position. :)

Candice would be so proud!


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