Kevin and Ronaldo -

I truly appreciate the civil and informative dialogue (minus the Rats). It's refreshing to see people actually discuss ideas in a substantive way.

Kevin mentioned that he expected Biden to win so I wanted to offer a different perspective. By way of background, I'll give this.

Two weeks before the last election, I publicly predicted Trump would win. Not on a whim, but because I spent the better part of a month really digging into all the information I could find. I had come to that conclusion, but when Michael Moore basically said what I was thinking I knew I was probably right. We are polar opposites in nearly every way, but he had observed the same things I had. This was a big switch for me to come to this conclusion because I had not even taken Trump's candidacy seriously in the beginning.

My husband was convinced about Trump fairly early on because he noted that Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, and Trump were consistently getting 70% of the primary votes. All three were change candidates.

I strongly believe that as of today Trump is on track for a landslide victory for multiple reasons. I came to this conclusion because I take in a lot of information and look for patterns. I'm a big picture person so I analyze and synthesize information constantly. I notice things that most people never see and see the various ways they are connected. It's just the way I'm wired.

These are the reasons I see a landslide for Trump (in no particular order). None of these are enough to push him over the top again on their own, but put together I think they show a big picture win for him.

Trump will have lost almost no one who voted for him last time. People who voted solely because of the Supreme Court feel validated.

Trump will pick up a significant number of Conservatives and Christians who were uncertain and didn't take a chance on him so they voted third party or didn't vote for President. He will have met their criteria this time in terms of issues that are important to them.

Trump has a 90%+ approval rating with Republicans

The Walk Away Movement represents a significant number of formerly dependable Democrat voting blocks (minorities, gays, etc.)

The Blexit Movement

Other former Democrats with strong Youtube and social media followings who have become vocal Trump supporters such as Dave Rubin, Karlyn Borysenko, Tim Pool, etc.

The DNC released no polling results after their online convention

Support for BLM, Inc. has dropped dramatically since summer to only around 39%. They also recently scrubbed their website of a substantial number of Far Left and anti-family beliefs/policies leading me to believe that the DNC realized via polling numbers this was hurting them

Increasing numbers of people speaking out against all topics related to white fragility, anti-racism, etc. which was not happening just four to six weeks ago

Homeschooling has doubled this year. Not school from home, but legitimate homeschooling.

School choice is becoming a front burner issue for more people now that they have peeked behind the curtain of public education as it currently exists.

Many people are now fully aware of the existence of critical race theory and what it means

There are now 5 million new gun owners in 2020

Stony Brook professor, Helmut Norpoth, is predicting a Trump landslide. He correctly predicted Trump's last win.

Trump has made major inroads with the black community. In the past it was said that if a Republican could get 15% of the black vote, the Democrats could not win. I think Trump is on track to get much more than 15% of the black vote.

The combination of China - NBA - coronavirus - human rights abuses in China - Hong Kong - medical supply chain issues means many people would choose Trump to deal with China over Biden

Most people do not believe that the USA is a racist or evil country no matter how many times talking heads on TV try to tell them that it is

Most people do not believe they are racist nor do they believe their neighbors are racist no matter how many times Robin Diangelo and Ibram X. Kendi tell everyone they are

Riots and violence push people toward law and order

Trump is getting all of the law and order endorsements which means he will be getting the vast majority of those votes

Voter enthusiasm is overwhelmingly for Trump. It was watching Trump rallies streamed on YouTube that in part convinced me he was going to win in 2016.

Re: the streamed rallies on YouTube. In the past, there would be approximately 20k people watching the stream on the independent channel I use to monitor them (Right Side Broadcasting). Lately there have been 95k-120k watching each rally.

Trump is campaigning in Minnesota which means he clearly thinks he can win it

Attacking Amy Coney Barrett's adoption of her children was a big mistake

Kamala Harris is such a liability that they aren't allowing her to take questions. She was so unpopular in her own party that she dropped out before the first primary voting took place. She is incredibly unlikeable by almost any standard.

People have to choose someone to oversee the economy and Trump is more desirable than Biden

We are seeing very little polling information being pushed out which means it isn't favoring Biden

Many Trump supporters, Conservatives, and Republicans have openly admitted they will not answer a polling call or will lie.

That's my list. These are observations so take them for what they are worth. I'm not going to defend any of them since they are simply observations. People can choose to disagree if they are important or not. At this moment, it's a Trump landslide. The media is not helping by lying about this.

And speaking of Amy Coney Barrett, I wrote a piece on my website about how I think wokeness has the potential to damage NPC sororities. I've mentioned some of this before in discussions here, but when I saw the Kappa Delta Facebook meltdown over Barrett I decided to finish a post I had started. I'll share the link if anyone wants to read it.

My two cents. Your mileage may vary. :)

Breaking Our Bonds: How Wokeness Will Destroy National Panhellenic Conference Sororities

Let’s remember why Reid and the Democrats changed the rules to remove the filibuster for all but Supreme Court nominations. It’s important to understand it in context. McConnell and the Republicans used the filibuster a then-unprecedented amount of times to block or stall pretty much all of Obama’s appointees. They filibustered appointees they all agreed were qualified, for no other reason than Obama was doing the appointing. They even filibustered Chuck Hagel’s nomination for Secretary of Defense - yes, that would be former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel.

The event that was really the tipping point for the rule change was when Obama nominated three judges to fill three vacant seats on the DC Circuit Court. Not only did Senate Republicans scream and yell about how Obama was court-packing (by filling existing vacancies!), but they even introduced legislation to remove those three seats from the DC Circuit so Obama could not appoint people to fill them. (It didn’t pass, obviously.) This was the climate in which the rule was changed. Harry Reid didn’t do it just for fun.

And if the filibuster hadn’t been removed during the Obama years, anyone who thinks Mitch McConnell wouldn’t have done it himself the first time Democrats tried to filibuster any of Trump’s nominees has not paid attention to Mitch McConnell.

Sallie, I applaud your perspective and continued willingness to make well reasoned points that have proven unpopular on this forum.

I hope that I am proven wrong, but like Ronaldo, I do not share your optimism. I am terrified of the voter fraud that MSM sweeps under the rug.

TriDeltaSallie, loved your analysis. Thank you for your perspective. Like What?, I fear the possibility of massive voter fraud. Seeing states that are dragging out voting now to a week after Nov 3 makes it clear that this election is going to be full of fraud. Already finding large numbers of ballots trashed. Conspiracies for vote harvesting in older populations already running rampant.

Hey, my daughter got sent a ballot. She passed away in 2018.

I agree that voter fraud is a huge concern. Trump wins in a landslide for the reasons I've outlined (and several more points I've thought of since I published it). But, yes, there is an all-out effort to undermine the election.

A lot can happen in a month. That's why I said "as of today" I think he wins in a landslide. Something could change that and I would be the first to reassess my thinking and expectations.

QFP to compare later.

Interestingly, I just saw this pop up tonight.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...es/3573369001/

Please don’t interpret my comment as any criticism of your analysis, I just worry that this rosy outlook for Trump will further galvanize the fraudsters as their brethren are facing no consequences.

Carnation, my mother-in-law has received multiple pieces of election mail for my dead (2018) father-in-law, aka her ex-husband, who had not lived at her current address since the early 2000s. This is not an anomaly as I have heard similar stories from multiple friends and family members.

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why. :)

I didn't view it as criticism at all. I'm simply laying things out as I see them. There is no way I can account for fraud. I can only deal with facts.

Facts that are harder to track include things like these.

How will the movement of people out of urban areas due to the pandemic, violence, job loss, and work-from-home impact voting in various areas across the country? Will these swing areas in a different direction enough to impact electoral votes?

There are 5 million new gun owners. It's probably safe to say a significant portion of them will vote for the candidate who supports the 2nd Amendment. But where do they live (blue versus red areas) and how will that impact outcomes with electoral votes?

Where do the Walk Away, Blexit, and moderate Democrats who have switched to supporting Trump live? Do they live in heavily red areas? Heavily blue areas? Will their switching impact electoral votes?

These are questions I haven't seen answered anywhere.

Trideltasallie, there is no systematic explanation for Biden winning, it is simply, Orange Man Bad

Receiving election mailings from candidates who have made the error of purchasing very old mailing lists happens at our home, too. Our county has, however, always been quickly up-to-date when it comes to removing deceased family members from county voting rolls. I have yet to receive one updated voter registration card or vote-by-mail reminder for the three people in our home, all legally registered voters prior to passing, who have died in the past two years.

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

My previous attempt at a reply timed out, so here are the cliff notes so I can go to bed. My dead FIL does not just receive random political mailers. He, like at least 6 other individuals with whom I share/d close personal ties who have either moved or passed away well over 2 years ago, have received polling place cards and detailed instructions for voting by mail from our state DOE.

Sallie -

I read your blog post and would love to know which groups you think are farthest down the rabbit hole.

I also read it. And to answer your question: yours and mine.

:rolleyes:

I critiqued my own group and my own experience. I discussed Kappa Delta's situation because it happened on a public Facebook page and involved a national news story.

That's as much as I'm willing to discuss publicly. There is no additional value going beyond what I've already written.

I haven’t been on this site in years but so glad I stopped in to see this ACB convo going on!

I’m thrilled to see her nomination. Considering SCOTUS Blackmun referred to abortion rights as “emancipation” for women, I glad that a woman who didn’t need to kill her own in order to be professionally successful is being highlighted. It’s a wonderful refute to the feminist notions that a properly functioning female body is a liability and that motherhood is subjugation.

I hope she is a Constitutional originalist. Afterall, the intent of our founding fathers matters (otherwise, what’s the point of an ever shifting document?). Regardless of where one stands on abortion, there is no right to kill unborn humans in it. The right to privacy speaks to unreasonable searches as what occurred during the Stamp Act. Personal concern played a part in Blackmun’s decision, as his then knocked-up college daughter Sally wished she’d had abortion as an option. Roe v Wade was so wrongly decided that precedent or not, it will not stand. Trump will need to seat another 1 or 2 supremes in order to get the deed done. And for women unhappy about illegal/unsafe abortion, just don’t have one.

ACBs dislike of LGBT rights is very easy to support from both a religious and non-religious/common good standpoint. We don’t need to endorse LGBT in order to affirm their status as children of God and fellow human beings worthy of dignity, value and respect.

Finally, for “Catholics” who don’t accept full church teaching, that’s just Martin Luther Catholicism, aka, protestantism. Intellectual honesty demands a different religious label.

KD should be proud to call such an accomplished woman one of their own.

My father is a life-long Republican but saw through Trump's lies in 2016 and voted for HRC. He woke me up this morning to tell me Trump tested positive for COVID and my father hates the telephone so it must have been very important to him. I guess he falls into that 10% of Republicans that Sallie quoted as not supporting Trump, but he is highly educated and still running his consulting business at age 88.

Here is a breakdown of the Republicans in my family.

The Ohio and Georgia Republicans are all voting for Biden except one question mark. He won't discuss how he is voting but his wife put a Biden sign in their front yard and he hasn't removed it.
The Texas/Colorado Republican family members are...well...Texas Republicans and made their money from oil. I don't need to ask how they plan to vote but one has said she is sitting out this election because she doesn't like either candidate.
The Florida Republicans are voting for Biden because they are in the healthcare field (one is an MD and the other a CNP) and see first-hand how Trump mishandled COVID.

Again, not a good cross-section since it's just my family and about one-half of them are Democrats who vote country over party. Only my personal situation but I'm sure at least one new member will become agressives over this post.

I do not know if I am one of the new members to whom the last sentence was directed, but I will take the bait to say that I am sure that everyone has policies that are more important to them than others and I encourage them to vote in their self interest. I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

On the other hand, I know several Republicans in my super blue state who are just simply not voting because the options are so bad. I was almost among their ranks 4 years ago. I find both of our options terrible, it is just a matter of choosing the one that YOU consider less terrible.

No but while your "high fives" were annoying, the posts right out of Russian propaganda from another were bat shit crazy.
BTW...socialism in the United States is a scare tactic I would expect anyone with a college degree to see through.

I check out Rod Dreher's blog a few times a month to gauge what is going on in Never Trumper or Almost Never Trumper land. His commenters tend to be all over the place.

He often shares comments and emails on his posts. I thought these were instructive.

Per your post, I had the exact same thought about Trump voters and pollsters after hanging out the other day with several couples we get together with every few weeks. It was at our house and it was clear people felt “safe” — and somewhat to my chagrin that meant the conversation immediately turned political. Every one of them is a Trump voter, but it was crystal clear none of them would talk to a pollster in a million years. All expressed a deep distrust that ANYONE outside a very tight knit circle of trust could be relied upon not to use information about their politics to harm them. They basically took it for granted that if they gave politically incorrect answers to a pollster their name was going on a list that would be used by the left to take punitive action against them in the future.

These are all pretty successful, solid folks, who I know from experience would give you the shirt off their back – the kind of people who would typically be defenders and sustainers of the institutions that have helped give them a pretty good life. But their level of social trust is now basically zero. It’s disturbing, but I get it.

and

Apropos of what you say about formerly Trump-hesitant people losing their hesitation, I relay to you the following personal anecdote.

Last night I was watching the Spectator’s recent YouTube video analyzing the state of the election (recommended, by the way). My wife was doing paperwork in the same room and half paying attention. Afterward, she said to me, “Are you going to vote for Trump? I think we have to.” And she spent the next few minutes trying to convince me to vote for him.

Here’s the thing about that. I didn’t vote for Trump (or Clinton) in ‘16. I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Like you, I’m a social and religious conservative who generally thinks that Trump’s manifest character flaws and general nuttiness disqualify him for high office. I’m increasingly inclined to vote for him this year, but I remain undecided. But my wife… she went to [elite New England boarding school] and then to [super-liberal Northern college], where she majored in fine arts. She has a graduate degree in [a psychology-related field], and went to Burning Man multiple times and loved it. She’s not a very political person, but if I had to pin her down, I would call her a Rockefeller Republican: leave the family trust alone, no capital gains tax, and social libertarianism. Sort of the opposite of me, now that I think about it. She’s also a survivor of sexual violence, which inclines her to the #BelieveWomen position. But the point is: the events of this summer have shifted her into the position of thinking it is urgently important to vote for Trump, and she spent some minutes last night trying to convince me of this urgency.

I don’t need much convincing. But it was a personal mundus inversus moment for me, illustrating what you talk about in your post – how the Left is driving erstwhile normies, and even some elite New Englander types (QED) into Trump’s camp. I’m so used to my wife being the politically moderating voice in our marriage, pulling me from my quasi-integralist orbit back towards the center. But this summer has really shaken things up. Biden may still win, but that won’t prove that our media institutions have harmonized themselves with reality, or understood the electorate, to a greater extent than they did in ‘16.

Taken from this post: Soft Totalitarianism & Anti-Biden Ad

Stories don't prove anything, but they can add to formulating an overall understanding of what is happening.

Still "Shootem' Up Sallie".

That is a fascinating story.

There are a lot of relationships under a lot of strain in this country.

I'm not sure what you mean, but I'm tired of living in a culture where people are afraid to speak up and so I spoke up.

I don't want to live in a culture where university professors have to disown their own peer-reviewed published research out of fear of the mob (Michigan State researcher Joseph Cesario).

I don't want to live in a culture where a young cyclist makes one harmless tweet supporting the POTUS and is immediately cancelled and removed from his racing team (Quinn Simmons).

I don't want to live in a culture where professors and students fear each other on a moment to moment basis, knowing if they say or do one thing that is even slightly perceived as wrong they can lose everything (USC professor Greg Patton).

And on and on and on.

I despise cancel culture because of where it will take us. So that's why I spoke up. I hope other people will here as well.

That's it for me. I appreciate the opportunity to speak without being attacked. Truly.

Agree to disagree. I am, if I do say so myself, a pretty well educated and informed person with a T-14 diploma on my wall and a bar card parked in my wallet. Wow, I even kinda hate myself for writing that.

Anywhoo, I share her concerns about socialism. I agree that reasonable minds may disagree about the urgency of this concern. However, the Democratic primary results (pre South Carolina) and nightly news are evidence that lots of Americans are very unhappy with their place in society and looking for immediate, radical change.

Moreover, reasonable minds can also agree that this really isn’t going to be a Biden presidency given all evidence pointing to cognitive decline. This unknown in who is running the show leaves me little idea of what to expect during a Biden presidency. Even a remote possibility is too great for me. Again, this is not among my primary concerns, but it is upsetting to me that this word is being thrown about in conversations with any frequency, especially by many who have no idea what actual socialism looks like and who are just looking for the next cult of personality* to worship.

*And yes, I get it that the same can be said for many Trump supporters. There are total morons on both sides of the aisle.

Lastly, I look forward to the day that I can throw a high five your way. I believe people who make well reasoned, yet unpopular, points deserve them. It takes guts (even from behind a keyboard) to stand up for opposing points of view. While I disagree with some of Ronaldo’s previous statements, the Titchou related posts and his reverence for Trump (sorry, Ronaldo, Titchou is a greekchat icon who deserves better and Trump ain’t great) his knowledge level is beyond impressive. Even though you have blocked him, I hope you read his exchange with Kevin because it is what was previously lacking in this thread.

THIS! Sorry, Benzgirl... high five to Sallie!

I am neither Alt right nor a newbie.

This account dates back a year and my main account much longer than that. Wanna test my knowledge- sequin pantyhose, Carnation Nation, Titchou is a canner, everyone is appalled by Alpha Phi (including Jen the Alpha Phi writer), I have read every word Clemson Girl has ever written dating back to recruitment when her choices were Theta and ADPi to date where she is attending law school at an institution I will not name as I can’t remember if I deduced it or if she named it, I remember the craziness that is Longhorn Mom from those long deleted posts and am expecting a $hitshow today now that she is back.

I don’t know why I am bothering. Your MO appears to be relying upon ad hominem attacks.

I'm starting to get a Blue Angel sense right about now...

Beetlejuice!

I thought Ronaldo was PhiPsiRuss because He Does Go On, but I don’t think Russ is that political.

You two are killing me!!!!

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

I had better tune into CNBC and get the noon update.

I've seen this comment from many of my moderate to conservative friends about Biden, and from my liberal to progressive friends about Trump, and I'll give the gentle warning here like I did to them - playing at "someone else is pulling the strings" is, unknowingly, playing into long standing anti-Semitic tropes, and such accusations should be levied with great caution.

Shabbat shalom.

Not at all my intention, I am nothing if not direct and have demonstrated a willingness to be vilified for speaking my mind. Moreover, my mom would disown me.

This is not the case of a typical presidential candidate. This guy has demonstrated clear signs of cognitive decline. He does not present the way he did just 4 years ago when there were rumblings that he did not run due to Obama’s absolute lack of confidence in his ability to do so/ refusal to endorse. I have never made comments akin to who is pulling the strings prior to Biden, a guy who has had his minders and wife literally pull him away to stop his belligerent outbursts on multiple occasions.

LOL! :D

Um, no competent 9th grade social studies teacher who actually knew what they were talking about would tell a student that he or she believed ELLEN Wilson was "running the show when Woodrow Wilson was incapacitated."

Bingo! British spelling of the word.

As claimed above, Ronaldo9 is posting like a provocateur and is likely foreign. He/she showed his hand in another thread he started on Greekchat entitled, "President Trump Expected to Make Swift Recovery from COVID-19." In that thread, he/she gave himself away by using phrases that an American would never use. For example:

"* * * he bravely stood in harm's way to lead the country even at risk to himself. All obeisance is owed the President.

Thankfully, * * * and the President remains firmly in control of all the levers of government.* * * recover as quickly and brilliantly as many other great, conservative world leaders who have had this, like President Bolsanaro.

While it is now appropriate to suspend next month's election, * * *"

How many Americans do you know that talk that way? The British spellings mentioned above are another tip off.

Ronaldo9 joined Sept 2020. He has also admitted that English is his second language, likely to obfuscate possible grammatical errors, though I think he/she writes pretty well - but he/she does not write like an American. Also, Ronaldo9 seems to devote in inordinate amount of time to posting, which makes me think that his job is to sit in front of a computer all day and type out the rhetoric he posts here. (Parts of some posts also seemed canned.)

In addition, Ronaldo9's original posting of "President Trump Expected to Make Swift Recovery from COVID-19" was made made at 8:20 am Greenwich Mean Time, meaning the post was started at 1:20 am (pac); 2:20 am (mt); 3:30 am (cen); 4:20 am (east); and 11:20 am Eastern European Time. Get my point.

Like FaceBook and Twitter, the Greek Chat moderators should beware.

In any event, all this political talk needs to be stopped.

I absolutely agree with you on this point.

I haven't been here for long and I completely agree that these political threads need to be shut down. I signed up for GC to reminisce about the good old days and, once in a blue moon, state my opinion. These political threads devolved quickly and became abhorrent in absolutely no time at all.