This is a [probably] unintentional, but wonderful choice of words.

But still.

Occam's Razor.

When was the last time one of these 'vast' conspiracies worked out the theorists believed it had worked out? For obvious reasons, (see KSig RC above) the vast conspiracy theory just doesn't wash.

No need to try and jam square pegs into round holes. Palin doesn't owe anyone an explanation because nothing happened.

Well, if you want to rumourmonger, do it right!

http://www.snopes.com/politics/palin/bristolbaby.asp

I'm gonna have to send that to some of my friends. Hilarious!

I'm well aware that there are some people who see a conspiracy in everything. However, it is important to remember that just because someone suggests there IS a conspiracy in a situation, you shouldn't automatically discount it as a crazy conspiracy theory with no support. That's just as bad in my opinion.

Just to pop back in here, my understanding of Occam's Razor is that when there are two competing theories that reach the same prediction, the simpler one is better, right? So how is saying that Bristol is the mother the theory in conflict with Occam's Razor? Isn't that the simpler explanation, versus all of the explanations Sarah's ahd to make and taking down of pictures and absence of video, photos and records of all those months and events? Not to mention the appalling series of events she recounted the day she says she gave birth. To me, the story built around Sarah's pregnancy is much more in conflict with Occam's Razor than that her daughter got knocked up and had a kid in April.

One of the more interesting things I read today in my hour-plus-google-fest on the subject is that Bill McAllister, a former Anchorage TV reporter (who, interestingly, was later hired as the Governor's communications director), was quoted saying that the governor had approached him in the early spring and asked if he'd been hearing rumors about Bristol being pregnant because they weren't true. This was before Palin had announced her pregnancy.

Why is it unthinkable that a conservative governor of an evangelical Christian bend who is outspoken on abstinence, no birth control and anti-choice would be motivated to conceal the pregnancy of her teenage daughter? I personally find that much more believable than that the same right-wing, pro-life, showing-she-can-do-it-all politician wouldn't have been trumpeting her 5th pregnancy at the ripe, healthy age of 43 and that her baby would be special needs and they made the pro-life choice because that's the right thing to do and aren't I a great example for all the young women of Alaska and America? Here I am, a successful, working Mom, I'm married and I'm with child, I'm doing all the right things in the right order, listen to what I have to say because I walk the talk I talk.

I'm still not saying I'm 100% on the "It's Bristol's baby!" bandwagon, but I am saying that I disagree with all those saying it's not her case to prove. Baloney. Not with the high-stakes political game she was trying to play. You want people to shut up and stop "spreading rumors"? Produce a birth certificate. Produce a hospital record. Produce your own doctor, for heaven's sake. Who, by the way, is a family practitioner, not an OB/GYN. So a 43-year-old with a high-risk pregnancy and a special needs child was not referred to a specialist, but instead relied on her regular family doctor to give her prenatal care and deliver a child that might have needed special attention as soon as he was born? AND she won't make a definitive statement that she delivered the governor's baby in April? The hospital didn't make an announcement that the governor had chosen their facility to have her baby? No birth announcements or a family photo in the recovery room after the 5th blessing had arrived?

Just saying -- there'd be no Occam's Razor in play if Palin had just taken the smallest effort to prove the theory leading to her conclusion.


ETA: came across this picture and thought, huh, don't see many 18-year-old-guys kissing their girlfriend's little brother like this too often:

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/upl...080922-900.jpg

I'm glad to know I'm not the only person who had this thought!

Palin has always screamed white trash in a suit to me. It's like the epitome of the saying "You can take the girl out of the trailer park but you can't take the trailer park out of the girl."

Well said.

Forget the dna test - he kissed the baby!

Nothing the Palin family produces could surprise me. It always seemed to me that the families who let their daughters run around with trashy guys were pretty trashy themselves, and got a little trashier for the wear.

Also, who wouldn't kiss Trig? He looks like a lovable little fellow. I hope that we still get to see him grow up.

Seriously! I wonder how many children my brother has supposedly fathered! :rolleyes:

Occam's Razor is, in essence, "the simplest solution is generally the best."

Literally, it is that we shouldn't needlessly multiply variables when coming to a solution.

It's in conflict because we have a perfectly valid claim ("Sarah Palin is the mother") and no verifiable evidence to refute it, nor enough motive to make it clearly false, so it's a rough logical leap to come to any other conclusion. The simplest solution is that what is claimed as fact is actually fact.

No.

Why?

Oh. Clearly rumor and innuendo are better than fact.

Look, Palin's kind of an idiot, so it's not like I'll eat a hat if it's true, but we have to do WAY better than this . . . oh, also, cite? C'mon.

It's not "unthinkable" - it's just not verified by evidence.

This ... requires a lot of psychoanalysis. Just saying.

NittanyAlum, you had sex with a child at one point in the past.

Prove me wrong.

Come on.

WHEN SHE WAS SUPPOSEDLY PREGNANT WITH HER DAUGHTER'S KID (at least at first), SHE WAS NOT A VP CANDIDATE AND WAS NOT PLAYING ANY HIGH-STAKES GAMES UNLESS THERE ARE MUCH BETTER CASINOS IN AK THAN I'VE BEEN TOLD ABOUT.

Seriously - prove you didn't nail a kid.

Nice, tasteful challenge to throw in there on Christmas Eve, KSig, jeez!

We disagree on the application of Occam's Razor, I still say there's an argument that the theory that Bristol is the mother is the simpler one. The theory that Sarah is the mother is the one with a multitude of variables in conflict. I'm not going to recite every one, you can google and find the same hours' worth of reading I did. And it still may not convince you, I'm not saying it convinced me. I'm saying it doesn't make the answer that Bristol is the mother the one in conflict with Occam's Razor.

And re: Palin's political stake, it was still high, pre-VP nom. I meant it in that sense in my first post. She is the governor of the state, outspoken on her conservative social views and her teen daughter gets pregnant out of wedlock. Again, you can see it differently, but concealing that seems more in her political favor than concealing her 5th pregnancy for 7 months what with all her family-values-talk.

And now, back to my pre-holiday-gathering cocktail warm-up session with the hubby. Merry Christmas, everyone!

Ha - 'tis the season . . . but seriously, you wouldn't answer such a spurious charge, would you? Actually, you DIDN'T, so that's already been answered . . . and if she were indeed the mother, wouldn't such a charge seem equally spurious?

I cannot imagine a world in which a cover-up of a pregnancy is a simpler solution than any other reasonable scenario.

You really think she's smart enough to have that much foresight? You kind of have to play it both ways to get here, don't you? (note: not you specifically)

Definitely, you too - enjoy!

Not everyone gets referred to a specialist when it is thought that the pregnancy is "high risk." When my aunt was pregnant 8 years ago (she was 40-something at the time), her pregnancy was considered high risk because my cousin was a special needs child (he was thought to have Trisomy 18, i believe). Her regular ob/gyn watched her, and not once was my aunt looked at by a specialist.

I could be mistaken, but although there are "tests" to check for Down Syndrome it isn't considered 100%. When I was in HS, a girl I knew had the amino tests for Down, and tested "positive" (or whatever they call it) but the baby wasn't born with Down.


ETA: It looks like she's pregnant to me.

http://www.bluebloggin.com/wp-conten...eggers_400.jpg

and again, from the State of Alaska website. Palin, Feb. 26, 2008
http://i39.tinypic.com/hratec.jpg
http://gov.state.ak.us/photos/govp_washingtondc2008.jpg

FWIW - when I was preggers with #3 and 4, I was technically "high risk", but never had to have a specialist. I had some extra tests, but I also did not have some others because I would not have aborted, so my ob/gyn (and incidentally, I would have had a family practitioner deliver them, as I had with #2, but they are hard to find!) and I decided there was no point. I actually figured that since my first two deliveries went so well I would have no problems. HA! But that is another story. Back on topic -

I think it was extremely ill-advised to travel as late in her pregnancy as Sarah Palin did, but people make what I consider poor choices during pregnancy all the time.

Which simply adds Prez O to the long list of US presidents with siblings/close relatives who've done embarrassing stuff.

Kinda sort of the point.